BioNTech Q4 preview: Where next for BioNTech stock?

When will BioNTech release Q4 2021 earnings?

BioNTech will publish fourth quarter and full year results for 2021 on the morning of Wednesday March 30.

BioNTech Q4 2021 earnings preview

2021 was a landmark year for BioNTech which, in partnership with US outfit Pfizer, led the world’s battle against Covid-19 with their vaccine. The success of the jab has been immense considering the pair manufactured around 3 billion doses during the year. BioNTech has said it expected to distribute up to 2.5 billion doses during the year, stating this will deliver EUR16 billion to EUR17 billion in sales. That is a staggering achievement considering BioNTech delivered less than EUR500 million in revenue during 2020 before vaccine sales started to take off. Pfizer and BioNTech split the gross profit from the vaccine 50/50.

For the fourth quarter, analysts forecast revenue will jump to EUR3.87 billion from just EUR345.4 million the year before, with diluted EPS expected to soar to EUR8.05 from just EUR0.64. They anticipate BioNTech will report annual EPS of EUR37.02 in 2021 and turn from the EUR0.58 loss seen in 2020 on revenue of EUR17.4 billion, which is slightly ahead of guidance.

The key focus for investors is what the future looks like in 2022 and beyond. There remains huge geographic disparity when it comes to Covid-19 today. Many western countries with high vaccination rates have started to ease rules and have decided to learn to live with the virus. Some in Asia, particularly in China, continue to push ahead with zero-tolerance toward Covid, and low-income countries continue to wait for enough jabs to protect their populations. BioNTech announced last month that it will develop its first modular manufacturing facilities to improve supplies in Africa by mid-2022 and has plans to set up sites in Rwanda, Senegal and potentially South Africa.

The fact the consensus range for BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine sales in 2022 is wide, ranging from as low as EUR11.3 billion and as high as EUR22.4 billion, suggests markets are unsure about how demand will fare this year. The mid-point of that range is closer to EUR16.5 billion, ahead of BioNTech’s guidance for EUR15.9 billion.

Much of this will depend on how profitable sales of the vaccine are this year and on where those sales are made. The Pharma team at Bloomberg Intelligence say BioNTech may struggle to hit its 2022 vaccine sales target because of two issues. Firstly, analysts believe Pfizer’s gross margin on sales needs to be around 70% for BioNTech to achieve its goal but believe this will be a challenge considering shipments made to lower-income countries are increasing and that rivals like Moderna are achieving that kind of margin on its more expensive shots. Secondly, they believe sales outside the US needs to hit around EUR5.4 billion in 2022, which they describe as a ‘tall order’. Notably, Moderna just yesterday raised its full year forecast for vaccine sales in 2022 to $21 billion from its original target of $19 billion.

Away from Covid-19, BioNTech is working on a pipeline of oncology drugs that continue to progress, with four individual programmes now in Phase 2 development and working toward later-stage clinical trials.

Where next for BNTX stock?

BioNTech shares hit their lowest level in almost two years earlier this month before rebounding.

The recent uptrend has stalled since recapturing the 50-day sma, and trading volumes have declined since the stock pushed higher last week. Shares have been edging lower this week but have held above $164, which should be treated as the initial level of support for the stock going forward with the short-term moving average acting as the first floor. Any break below the 50-day sma, which currently sits at $160, would open the door to the $135 level of support seen on several occasions since the start of 2022.

BioNTech shares need to push above $175 to keep the uptrend intact and then recover back above the February-high of $184 to install confidence it can move higher. From there, the initial upside target is the 100-day sma at $216 and then the 200-day sma at $254. The 16 brokers covering the stock are currently bullish and have an average target price of just over $301, implying there is over 78% potential upside from the current share price.

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