Apple Q4 preview: Where next for the Apple share price?

When will Apple release Q4 earnings?

Apple will publish fourth quarter and full year results on Thursday October 28.

Apple Q4 earnings preview: what to expect from the results

The supply crunch for chips and components remains centre stage ahead of the results, with investors keen to know how Apple has handled the supply chain problems following reports that it has been forced to trim production in recent months.

Notably, markets are bullish that Apple has mitigated the issues better than it rivals. In fact, analysts see iPhone year-on-year sales growth accelerating to 57% in the fourth quarter from 50% in the third, which would lead to the second best quarter for sales of its mobile device on record.

The rise in iPhone sales, partly spurred on by more people wanting to upgrade to 5G and attractive deals offered by telecoms firms, will also spur-on growth for its Services unit as more people tap-into the Apple ecosystem to get the best out of their new phones. There is growing regulatory pressure on the Services unit, such as on the commissions it collects from app developers, but these headwinds are expected to start being felt in the new financial year rather than the fourth quarter, leading analysts to believe Services revenue can grow over 20% year-on-year.

Wall Street is forecasting Apple’s fourth quarter revenue will rise to $84.80 billion from $64.70 billion the year before, marking another new quarterly record. Here is a breakdown of revenue expectations by segment along with the comparative figure from the fourth quarter of last year:

Services: $17.57 billion versus $14.55 billion (+20.7% YoY)
iPhone: $41.60 billion versus $26.44 billion (+57%)
Mac: $9.31 billion versus $9.03 billion (+3.1%)
iPad: $7.16 billion versus $6.79 billion (+5.4%)
Wearables, Home and Accessories: $9.28 billion versus $7.88 billion (+17.8%)

Earnings per share in the final three months of the financial year to late September is forecast to come in at $1.22 compared to just $0.73 last year. Profitability will be closely-watched. Although confidence is high that Apple has been able to meet demand amid the scramble for parts and chips, there are concerns that it may have had to sacrifice profitability by paying more for the supplies it needs due to the inflationary environment that is leading to higher costs across the board for most businesses.

If Apple hits market expectations for the fourth quarter, then it should lead to annual revenue growing 33% to $366.2 billion from $274.5 billion and for EPS to increase over 70% to $5.60 from $3.28.

Although markets seem convinced Apple is managing the supply crunch, they will be seeking reassurance that these problems will not weigh on iPhone sales during the first half of the new financial year as it will be a key sales period for the company. If it struggles to keep up with demand in the first half and pushes more sales into the second, then there is a risk more people will hold-off purchasing the iPhone 13 and instead wait for Apple to release a new model. With this in mind, sales in the first half of the new financial year will be key in deciding if Apple can deliver another year of record iPhone sales.

Apple shares have climbed over 80% in value since the pandemic started, having reaped the rewards from the increase in demand for tech and digital services. Having become America’s first publicly-traded business to breach the $1 trillion mark in August 2018, the company now boasts a value closer to $2.5 trillion. Still, the 41 brokers covering the stock remain bullish with an average Buy rating and a target price of $168.89, implying there is over 13% potential upside from the current share price and that Apple can surpass the $157.26 all-time high hit on September 7.

Where next for the Apple share price?

Apple share price trades around 6% off its all time high. Whilst the price corrected lower after hitting $157, it found support at $138 at the start of the month and has since rebounded higher, retaking both the 50 & 100 sma.

Buyers are testing $150 resistance and previous record high, in order to target $157 and more all time highs.

Meanwhile, on the downside a break below 138 would be significant with sellers gaining traction below this level.

How to trade Apple shares

You can trade Apple shares with Forex.com in just four steps:

Open a Forex.com account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
Search for ‘Apple’ in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.