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Wall Street Forecast: DJIA rises after Trump's Treasury Secretary nomination

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
November 25, 2024 3:49 PM

US futures

Dow future 1.17% at 44,800

S&P futures 0.86% at 6015

Nasdaq futures 0.83% at 20930

In Europe

FTSE 0.3 % at 8290

Dax  0.4% at 19435

  • US stocks rise, extending last week’s gains
  • Trump’s Treasury Secretary nomination is Scott Bessent
  • Bessent is not in favor of broad-based trade tariffs
  • Oil steadies after 6% gains last week

Stocks rise ahead of this week’s core PCE & FOMC minutes

U.S. stocks are pointing to a stronger open on Monday amid a sign of relief on Wall Street following President-elect Trump's nomination for Treasury Secretary.

The move higher comes after gains last week, which saw investors shift into cyclical stocks while rotating out of technology. The Dow Jones rose 2% last week, outperforming the Nasdaq's 1.7% gains.

Trump's Treasury Secretary nomination, Scott Bessent, has helped calm worries and uncertainty surrounding the influential post. Bessent supports tax reforms and deregulation of US firms. He is also opposed to stringent trade tariffs, which would reduce the likelihood of a costly trade war under the second Trump administration.

Reports of a possible de-escalation in the long-running Middle Eastern conflict are also supporting market sentiment.

The U.S. economic calendar is quiet today. Attention is squarely on upcoming FOMC minutes and US core PCE data, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation. Economists expect inflation to rise, although CPI and PPI data have yet to be released before the December 17 to 18 meeting.

Sticky inflation means the Fed will likely take a cautious approach to cutting rates. The market sees just a 56% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December.

Corporate news

Macy's falls over 4% after the retail giant announced that it would delay its Q3 earnings release owing to an accounting issue. Sales, in its preliminary results, disappointed, as steep promotions failed to attract customers.

Bath &  Body Works Works soars over 10% after the retailer raised full-year guidance following strong Q3 results.

Planatir rose pre-market after Wedbush lifted its price target on the data analytics firm, as the broader software space is jumping on the AI train.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

The Dow Jones rises to a fresh all-time high. The price rose above 44,500 at the November 11 high and is extending gains towards 44,700 on its way to 46,000. The RSI supports further upside while it remains out of overbought territory. Sellers need to take out 43k last week’s low to create a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rebounds

The USD is falling after gaIns in the previous week. The USD is tracking treasury yields lower after Trump’s Treasury Secretary nomination, which has gone down well with the bond market. However, this fall in the USD could be short-lived, with core PCE and Fed minutes in focus this week.

EUR/USD is recovering from a 2-year low despite German IFO surveys showing that business morale fell in November by more than expected. German IFO business climate fell to 85.7f from 86.5, and the current assessment fell to 84.3 from 85.7. The data reaffirms the struggles the eurozone’s largest economy faces.

GBP/USD is rising towards 1.26, recovering from a 6-month low after hawkish comments from the Bank of England's deputy governor, Clare Lombardelli. In her first speech since taking office in July, Claire Lombardelli said she was more worried about the upside risk to inflation and supports the case for gradual reductions in interest rates. Her comments come after PMI data last week showed a contraction, but inflation was hotter than expected.

Oil steadies after 6% gains last week

Oil prices are holding steady at a 2-week high after rising 6% in the previous week as investors await further geopolitical developments that could affect the market.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine ramped up last week, leading to a rising geopolitical risk premium on oil prices. While the increased tensions haven't impacted Russian oil exports, the risk of a wider escalation could impact supply.

Meanwhile, news is breaking that Israel and Hezbolah could be moving closer to a ceasefire.

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