CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
✖

USDJPY, Silver Analysis: Dollar Rally Risks vs Yen and Silver

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
November 18, 2024 10:00 AM

Key Events

  • BOJ intervention risks align with US Dollar rally and Japanese inflation metrics
  • BOJ Governor Ueda to speak at the International Finance Forum on Thursday
  • National Core CPI and Japanese/US Flash Manufacturing PMI scheduled for Friday for volatility risks
  • Sharp metal retracement sent silver to retest the lower boundary of its one-year uptrend

USDJPY Analysis: 3Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Historical chart patterns and BOJ policies against yen weakness suggest that a USDJPY rally beyond the critical resistance levels of 157 and 160 could heighten intervention risks, similar to the BOJ’s market-shaking actions in August. A decisive close above the 107-mark on the DXY could trigger further currency sell-offs, impacting global monetary policy adjustments.

  • Upside Potential: Without intervention, USDJPY could break past 157 and 160 resistance levels, heading toward the 167–170 zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the parallel channel connecting the 2023–2024 highs.
  • Downside Risk: A retreat below the 151 mark could lead to support at 149 and 146, before potentially confirming a deeper drop toward the yearly low.

BOJ Governor Ueda’s recent remarks emphasize their readiness to act on rates without waiting for complete clarity, warning that delays could necessitate more aggressive hikes.

Silver Analysis: 3Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The US Dollar’s rally and a decrease in market uncertainty have driven a sharp retracement in precious metals, pressuring silver to retest key technical levels. These include the trendline connecting consecutive lows between 2023 and 2024, the trendline connecting highs from May to September 2024, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the trend between August and October 2024.

Silver remains within the boundaries of its one-year up-trending parallel channel, and the scenarios are the following:

  • Bullish Scenario: If the primary uptrend holds, silver could recover toward resistance levels at 31.60, 32.60, and 35, with the potential to reach a new decade high of 37
  • Bearish Scenario: A decisive close below the critical support at 29.60 could extend the drop toward the 26-price zone, with possible support levels at 28.70 and 27.70

--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT on X: @Rh_waves

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2024