CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
✖

USDJPY Forecast: Key Levels for BOJ and FOMC Week

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
July 26, 2024 9:23 AM

Key Events for Today

  • Tokyo CPI Inflation
  • US Core PCE

Key Events for Next Week

  • BOJ Policy Meeting (Wednesday)
  • Fed Rate and FOMC Meeting (Wednesday)
  • Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)

The latest Tokyo CPI Inflation metric recorded an uptick from the previous 2.1%, in line with the expected 2.2%. With inflation rates trending upwards, the chances of tightening monetary policies are increasing. With the dollar facing the chances of a rate cut, the USDJPY pair is retesting May 2024 lows.

Today's release of the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE, will be closely monitored to assess the direction of FOMC and Fed rate impacts on the markets next week. Following a stronger-than-expected US advance GDP on Thursday, the markets experienced a slight sense of relief regarding recession risks.

Upcoming BOJ Meeting

The market anticipates tighter policies at the next BOJ policy meeting. While rate hikes are not guaranteed, the meeting will outline debt operation plans towards reducing bond purchases and testing the sustainability of current rates.

Upcoming FOMC Meeting, ISM Manufacturing PMIs, and Non-Farm Payrolls

Following the BOJ decision on Wednesday, polls are still inclined towards the start date of a Fed rate cut in September. Given a stable rate, the FOMC meeting is set to ripple volatility considering recent economic updates on disappointing earnings, recession risks, and inflation rates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll growth will be watched afterwards for assessing the US economy’s outlook.

Technical Outlook

USDJPY Forecast: USDJPY – Daily Timeframe – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Bullish Scenario

The USDJPY daily RSI is deeply oversold, retesting December 2023 lows. From a price action perspective, the latest low aligns with the May 2024 low and the bottom end of the projected parallel channel from the year’s primary trend, forming a dragonfly doji candlestick pattern.

The dragonfly doji, a reversal pattern, has no body but an extended lower wick, reflecting the bears' inability to sustain the latest lows.

A reversal from the latest 151.94 low could potentially realign with the 157.80-158 zone and 160 levels.

Bearish Scenario

A close below 151 can potentially drag the trend towards the January 2024 high and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the yearly trend near 148.80.

 

--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025