USD/CAD Breakout: Insights on Extremes in Sentiment & Momentum
One of the most prominent moves of the year occurred in December as USD/CAD broke through major technical resistance. The move unleashed a rally of more than 3.1% into the close of the year with price breaking to fresh multi-year highs.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart- USD/CAD Monthly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
A major pivot zone was tested on the heels of the U.S. election at the 2016 / 2020 high closes at 1.3975-1.4062 with the Trump rally breaking through the median-line of a modified pitchfork extending off the 2021 low. The breakout takes price into low-tolerance range that has seen numerous exhaustion points into the 2016 high at 1.4990.
USD/CAD Client Sentiment
Client Sentiment Indicator represents client positions held through FOREX.com
A remarkable feature of this move was the continued build in retail short-exposure as traders attempted to fade a massive wave of momentum. At the same time, weekly momentum had broken into overbought territory for the first time since 2022- in that instance, price had mounted a breakout to fresh yearly highs that extended another 5.4% in the following weeks before exhausting.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart- USD/CAD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
The most recent breakout in momentum was not only accompanied by a breach of key resistance near 1.4098-1.4115, but also an extreme build in short-exposure. Another clear reminder that extremes in momentum are often times the sharpest part of a trend despite the impulse of most retail traders to fade this condition. Remember that prices can stay in the overbought condition for an indefinite time period and it is ultimately, the return from overbought that typically marks the threat of a larger turnaround.
Ultimately, support and resistance remain fundamental pillars of technical analysis. While momentum and sentiment provide valuable context, they should always complement, not override, these core principles. Keep in mind that traders will ultimately tend to be most bearish at the highs and the threat of a price exhaustion is always more pronounced during times of extreme readings in sentiment.
Bottom line: The focus into the yearly cross is on a reaction into major technical resistance here at 1.4483-1.4538 – a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the July 2023 advance and the 2016 close high. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this zone. Losses should be limited to 1.41 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this pivot zone needed to fuel the next leg of he advance towards 1.4660/90- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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