US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY
USD/JPY appears to be defending the rally following the US election as it retraces the decline from the monthly high (154.71), and the exchange rate may attempt to break out of the opening range for November amid the limited reaction to the Federal Reserve rate-cut.
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
USD/JPY rebounds ahead of the monthly low (151.29) on the back of US Dollar strength, and developments coming out of the US may continue to sway the exchange rate even as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists that ‘in the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register HereUS Economic Calendar
The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show the headline reading for inflation climbing to 2.6% in October from 2.4% per annum the month prior, while the core CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% during the same period.
Indications of persistent inflation may keep USD/JPY afloat as it put pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust policy at a slower pace, and the central bank may move to the sidelines at its last meeting for 2024 as the FOMC pledges to ‘make our decisions meeting by meeting.’
At the same time, a softer-than-expected CPI report may encourage the Fed to implement another rate-cut at the December meeting, and speculation for lower US interest rates may drag on the Greenback as the Chairman Powell and Co. are ‘on a path to a more neutral stance.’
With that said, USD/JPY may attempt to break out of the opening range for November as it retraces the decline from last week, but failure to push above the monthly high (154.71) may lead to a larger pullback in the exchange rate as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below overbought territory.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
- USD/JPY no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows as it bounces back ahead of the 200-Day SMA (151.71), with a breach above the monthly high (154.71) raising the scope for a move towards 156.50 (78.6% Fibonacci extension).
- Next region of interest comes in around the 1990 high (160.40) but USD/JPY may face range bound conditions should it struggle to push above the monthly high (154.71).
- At the same time, failure to hold above the monthly low (151.29) may push USD/JPY back towards the 148.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 150.30 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone, with the next area of interest coming in around 144.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 145.90 (50% Fibonacci extension).
Additional Market Outlooks
Monetary vs Fiscal Policy: Implications for FX Markets
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Opening Range in Focus Ahead of US CPI
USD/CAD Still Holds Below Monthly High Following Dovish Fed Rate Cut
GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of 200-Day SMA amid Hawkish BoE Rate Cut
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.
StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.
The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.
This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.
Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.
StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.
Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets
We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
© FOREX.COM 2025