US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Approaches November 2023 Low
US Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD approaches the November 2023 low (0.6318) as it gives back the advance from the start of the week, but the Federal Reserve interest rate decision may sway the exchange rate as the central bank is anticipated to further unwind its restrictive policy.
US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Approaches November 2023 Low
AUD/USD slips to a fresh monthly low (0.6333) as it starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows, and the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6545) as it holds below the moving average.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
US Economic Calendar
Nevertheless, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to reduce US interest rates by another 25bp at its last meeting for 2024, and the Fed may continue to pursue a neutral stance in 2025 as the central bank acknowledges that ‘the unemployment rate is notably higher than it was a year ago.’
In turn, more of the same from the FOMC may produce headwinds for the Greenback as the central bank continues to change gears, but the updated forecasts from Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may keep AUD/USD under pressure should the Fed show a greater willingness to unwind its restrictive policy at a slower pace.
With that said, a hawkish Fed rate-cut may fuel the recent decline in AUD/USD, but lack of momentum to test the November 2023 low (0.6318) may curb the bearish prices series in the exchange rate.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD falls toward the November 2023 low (0.6318) as it trades to a fresh monthly low (0.6333), with a breach below the 2023 low (0.6270) opening up 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
- Next area of interest comes in around 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), but AUD/USD may snap the recent series of lower highs and lows should it struggle to test the November 2023 low (0.6318).
- Need a close back above the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) zone to bring the monthly high (0.6515) on the radar, with a break/close above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) region bring the 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/CAD Pullback Keeps RSI Below Overbought Territory
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Attempts to Halt Five-Day Selloff
USD/JPY Stages Five-Day Rally for First Time Since June
Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Remains Below Pre-US Election Prices
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.
StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.
The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.
This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.
Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.
StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.
Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets
We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
© FOREX.COM 2024