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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Top Trades for 2025: USD/JPY, Bitcoin Poised for Trump

Article By: ,  Sr. Technical Strategist
Monday 4:30 PM

Return of the Carry Trade?

This year saw a massive unwind of the carry trade with USD/JPY plunging more than 13.8% in a spectacular ten-week sell-off. The decline was widely telegraphed as the death of a multi-year uptrend in the U.S. Dollar as the entire yearly advance was erased. Yet, just eight-weeks later USD/JPY had rallied 12.3% off the lows with a V-shaped recovery taking price into major resistance into the close of the year.

Japanese Yen Price Chart- USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

The sharp defense and recovery of key support at the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance / 2024 yearly open at 140.49-141 keeps 2021 advance viable heading into the start of the year. Key resistance is eyed at the 78.6% retracement of the July decline / July weekly breakdown close at 157.17/89- note that a 2020 parallel converges on this zone and a break / weekly close above is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards the 1190 high / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 160.40/73 and the yearly high at 161.95- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Weekly support rests at 152 and is backed closely by the 2022 high-close / 2023 HWC at 148.73-149.60. Broader bearish invalidation is set to the 61.8% retracement of the September advance at 146.59- a break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway toward the 2024 low-week close (LWC) at 143.90 and the yearly lows.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY recovery off the yearly lows is testing uptrend resistance into the close of the year. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 152 IF USD/JPY is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 157.89 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.

Crypto Resurgence to Gather Pace

A regulatory cloud has hung over the Bitcoin for the past four-years as traders weighted the potential for increased scrutiny on the maturing market. The crypto world may now be poised for a renaissance as a new ‘crypto-friendly’ administration assumes power.

Bitcoin Price Chart- BTC/USD Weekly

 

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; Bitcoin on TradingView

For Bitcoin, the impact was immediate with BTC/USD breaking to fresh record highs the day after the U.S. elections. The subsequent rally extended more than 118% off the August low before exhausting in late December into uptrend resistance. An outside weekly-reversal just ahead of Christmas threatens some near-term weakness within the broader uptrend.

Initial weekly support rests with the 23.6% retracement the 2022 rally at 86,443 and is backed closely by the 100% extension of the 2019 advance at 81,183. Broader bullish invalidation is now raised to the 2021 swing-high / March high-close (HC) at 69,000-71,285- losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high was registered / a larger trend reversal is underway.

Weekly resistance is eyed with the 100% extension of the March channel breakout at 107,892 and is backed 121,772-123,754- a region defined by the 1.618% and 1.272% extensions. Note that the upper parallel of the ascending pitchfork we’ve been tracking off the 2022 lows also converges on this threshold and further highlights the technical significance of this zone- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above needed to fuel the next move towards he 1.618% extension at 143,931.

Bottom line: The Bitcoin rally is responding to uptrend resistance into the close of the year. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 69,000 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

 

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