Week ahead

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil faces volatility risks ahead of the OPEC meeting, now rescheduled for Wednesday to accommodate all members and avoid a clash with the Gulf Summit. Sideways price movements persist, leaning towards a bearish bias for 2025.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil’s 4-year support level has amplified its importance as supply disruption risks rise again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, OPEC’s upcoming meeting on Sunday could reshape production quotas and influence market dynamics.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices face mounting pressures between clean energy transitions, geopolitical risks, and surplus concerns for 2025. Prices are now testing a critical 4-year support zone, challenging the continuation of the broader downtrend.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: With volatility still restrained post-US election and FOMC week, crude oil markets remain poised for a potential breakout as key events from OPEC, the IEA, and economic data from China and the US are on the horizon. The longer the price remains within this tight range, the more significant any upcoming breakout may be.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: In the coming week, crude oil markets face heightened volatility risks due to a closely contested US election on Tuesday, uncertain FOMC meeting on Thursday, and persistent geopolitical conflicts.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices gained 4% last week, closing near $71.70 as escalating strikes in the Middle East fueled uncertainty around a potential ceasefire or further retaliatory actions. With strong upside risk, oil prices are expected to navigate a busy week packed with key events related to employment and economic growth indicators.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Following the positive August non-farm payroll data and rising tensions with supply concerns from the Middle East, both the US Dollar Index and crude oil ended the week with notable gains.

Like it or hate it, there is clearly demand for the USD index around 100. And should NFP and ISMs outperform against next week, it might spark a dollar rebound.

Trades want to sell the USD, but that it causing a headache for the SNB who want a lower Swiss franc. And Some already estimate that the central bank is active in the FX market to defend the USD/CHF at 0.84. And that puts the SNB interest meeting, US GDP, PMI, PCE reports in focus, alongside the slew Fed members hitting the wires.

Next week brings three major central bank meetings, none of which seem to be on the same page policy wise. The Fed are expected to cut by 25bp and potentially set the record straight on another ‘50bp’ cut November, whereas there’s also an outside chance the BOJ may surprise with an interest rate hike given their renewed hawkish narrative. And while the Bank of England are expected to hold rates, a soft set of inflation figures could bring forward bets of a November cut.

EUR/USD has managed to recoup some of last week’s losses as we head into Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. But for it to stand any chance of to a fresh YTD high, US CPI likely needs to continue softening and the ECB surprise with a less-than-expected dovish cut on Thursday.