Wall Street

Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.

The yen suck in safe-haven flows on reports that the US government is considering limiting exports of AI chips. And given we have risk events and a US election looming, investors are likely questioning how exposed to risk they really want to be.

The S&P 500 trades just shy of its record high as we head into September, a month which averaged negative returns and closed lower about 55% of the time over the past four decades.

A weak ISM manufacturing report a day after a dovish Fed meeting (and on the eve of NFP) was just the ticket for risk off on Wall Street. GBP traders ignored the BOE's cautious stance on rate cuts.

Downwardly revised GDP for the US in Q1 weighed on Wall Street indices ahead of a key inflation report, yet the ASX and Nikkei managed to bounce form their lows. We look at where we think they might head next.

I suspect we're seeing the early moves of a pullback of appetite for risk in general, which saw traders push Wall Street indices and gold lower on Wednesday thanks to weak treasury demand. And it seems to be paving the way for the next leg higher for the USD.

With bitcoin effectively taking its general trend from the stock market these days, traders should take note that US indices are mixed around all-time highs and Nvidia (a key driver of the Nasdaq) trades below resistance ahead of a key earnings report.

US futures are pointing to a muted open after strong gains in the previous session, as the Federal Reserve begins its two day policy meeting and as earnings continue to roll in. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching commentary tomorrow on the future path for interest rates in light of recent strong data. US Consumer confidence data is due later today and is expected to ease to 100 from 103.

US stocks are set to open mildly lower as as treasury yields inch higher and US jobless claims remain low by historical standards. The jobless claims data comes after weak ADP payroll data yesterday, which helped to spark a recovery in treasuries -although the recovery in the bond market appears to have been short lived. Investors will keep a close eye on treasury yields as Fed speakers come into focus.

Can Disney’s earnings provide a much-needed catalyst for the House of Mouse?

The ASX200 trades 175 points (-2.5%) lower at 6835 at 2pm Sydney time