US Presidential election

True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

It was a lively day’s trade on Monday with Bitcoin reaching news highs above $80k and the USD index retesting its YTD high of 105.62. WTI crude oil and gold are on the brink of breaking key levels to the downside.

The Republican party is just 4 votes shy of the 218 required to take the house for a clean sweep. And that saw bitcoin futures top 80k with a $750 opening gap to kick off the week.

As the latest COT data is up to the close of election day, it shows how traders were positioned ahead of the results. Subsequent market moves suggest they needn't have piled into VIX longs and could have increased net-long exposure to the USD. But they were right to be wary of gold.

The expected 25 cut was delivered. But the Fed were understandably cautious regarding future cuts, given they don't know which or how many of Trump’s inflationary policies will see the day of light. And that means the current pullback on the USD and yields could be limited.

If you haven’t heard already, Donald Trump has been elected as President of the United States. flipped the senate and on the cusp of taking the house. A risk-on session ensued, which played nicely for AUD/JPY bulls - who now have 103 in focus.

Markets are making big moves on the back of Trump’s win and if House results confirm a Republican supermajority, there could be drive for even further highs in stocks and Bitcoin. The US Dollar, however…

We saw the usual risk-on bounce election day tends to bring. But if markets continue to track their historical averages, we’re in for some volatile reversals today.

The US Dollar is pulling back on election day and the currency is no longer overbought on the daily chart. In this webinar I looked at several election-related setups and in this article I look at a few of those in USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD.

The EUR/USD has been supported in the last few days for several macro reasons such as the ECB pushback against a 50-basis point rate cut in December, a rather weak US jobs report, and, more to the point, the recent poll suggesting Harris might be performing better than anticipated in swing state of Iowa.