Trump

Gold just finished its worst month in more than a year, and Bitcoin was a big beneficiary as anti-fiat flows drove into crypto-currencies following the Presidential election win of Donald Trump.

It’s been a fast-evolving market since the Presidential election three weeks ago. But stocks remain higher, Bitcoin has put in a major move and gold is on its back foot.

True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

Bitcoin is showing signs of fading bullish momentum, hinting at pullback potential before another leg higher.

Bitcoin Forecast: After the DXY pulled back from the 107-mark, Bitcoin retraced to the 86,000 level, reflecting a slight cooling in Trump-driven market momentum. Is the 100,000 mark still within reach?

The expected 25 cut was delivered. But the Fed were understandably cautious regarding future cuts, given they don't know which or how many of Trump’s inflationary policies will see the day of light. And that means the current pullback on the USD and yields could be limited.

With Trump leading in some polls and Fed members continuing to push back against a faster pace of easing, bond traders were quick to send yields and therefor the USD higher. USD/JPY now has 152 within sight.

Whether it is Biden stepping aside or Trump grabbing headlines with policy hints, it is difficult to see US politics taking a back seat next week. Fed watchers have the US PCE inflation report to look forward to, and global central bank watchers have flash PMIs. The BOC are expected to cut rates, but will they signal more next week?

U.S. stocks point to a higher start as traders assess the implications of an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump and ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell later today. Earnings are also in focus with numbers from Goldman Sachs and BalackRock.

Another day, another handle for USD/JPY which rose to a fresh multi-decade higher. Bond yields also continued to rally after the Biden-Trump debate, which has markets concerned that a more inflationary presidency under Trump seems the more likely outcome.