RBNZ

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

NZD/USD bounces back ahead of the 2023 low (0.5774) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30.

New Zealand’s economy is crawling despite aggressive rate cuts, leaving the RBNZ staring down a crucial decision: play it safe or unleash Adrian Orr’s hallmark “shock and awe” with a bold move next week. Could a 75bp cut be the surprise markets aren’t ready for?

NZD/USD rises despite soft jobs data, with risk of mega RBNZ cut remaining on the table. US Congress composition now key to near-term Kiwi moves.

New Zealand consumer price inflation (CPI) fell to the lowest level since early 2021 in the September quarter, seeing markets retain the view the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver another jumbo rate cut in November. NZD/USD has moved back towards range lows ahead of another key inflation measure.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has joined the Federal Reserve in the jumbo rate cut club, slashing its cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% at the conclusion of its October monetary policy decision. NZD/USD is testing the 200-day moving average in the wake of the decision, a level that one glance tells you is important from a directional risk perspective.

NZD/USD is on the cusp of testing the September low (0.6107) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (0.6108).

AUD/JPY looks to Wall Street for its next directional move while NZD/USD is down for a fifth day ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting. But if they fail to deliver a dovish 50b cut, it could prompt profit taking from bears and weigh further on AUD/NZD.

The USD is surging and markets are betting that the RNZZ could cut rates by 100bp by December. Failure to do hint at such a move could see AUD/NZD track AUD/USD lower.

The RBNZ surprised economists but not traders in August, cutting its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, the first reduction seen since the early stages of the pandemic. It expects to cut rates another four times by the middle of next year, with the risks skewed to even more easing should we see a global hard economic landing.