RBA

AUD/USD holds below pre-US election rates as trades at its lowest level since 2022.

Another strong Australian jobs report has cast doubt on the need for the RBA to reduce rates in early 2025, with evidence mounting that unemployment has peaked. Traders price more than three rate cuts over the next year, but any signs of returning inflationary pressures could spark upside for bond yields and AUD.

AUD/USD faces fresh pressure after the RBA's dovish shift raises rate cut bets, with traders now eyeing a potential move in February. A break below key support could see the pair test new lows as the outlook for the Aussie darkens.

AUD/USD may attempt to test the yearly low (0.6349) as it extends the decline from the start of the month.

The RBA is holding firm on rates, but with inflation concerns still high and the US election looming, what’s the next move for the Aussie dollar? As bonds take a beating and AUD/USD edges higher, here’s how both domestic policy and global events could shape the outlook.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA0 is expected to keep the cash rate at 4.35% for eight straight meetings.

Underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high in Australia. With continued strength in hiring keeping labour market conditions tight, it means the prospect for RBA rate cuts in 2024 is now remote. For AUD/USD and AUD/JPY traders, external factors are likely to dictate direction from now until year-end, especially the Federal Reserve rates outlook and US election.

Australia’s Q3 inflation report is the sole remaining domestic data release that could meaningfully influence the outlook for interest rate settings from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, making Wednesday’s report a key event for AUD/USD and ASX 200 SPI futures traders.

AUD/JPY looks to Wall Street for its next directional move while NZD/USD is down for a fifth day ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting. But if they fail to deliver a dovish 50b cut, it could prompt profit taking from bears and weigh further on AUD/NZD.

An upside surprise on ISM services helped slow the bleeding on US stock markets and AUD/USD erase heavy losses ahead of todays RBA meeting. Nikkei futures rose 6% after its 12% plunge, which brings hopes for a bounce on the ASX 200 today.

Two RBA speeches and a monetary policy decision along with updated RBA forecasts are the highlights of the week for AUD/USD traders on the domestic front. Although risk-off tones and an ISM services report could prove to be the bigger drivers.