Precious metals

Gold’s relentless 2024 rally has defied strong dollar headwinds and rising yields, smashing records and flipping traditional relationships on their head. Is it still a safe haven, or has the game changed for good?

Crude Oil, Gold Forecast: Following China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, demand sentiment for Chinese oil and gold has surged, pushing crude oil above $70 and gold above $2,700. Middle East tensions continue to reinforce support levels for these commodities as drastic regional developments unfold.

A shift in Beijing’s monetary strategy provided a boost to Chinese stocks and rippled through global markets, lifting commodity prices, including gold. Add geopolitical tensions from the Middle East to Europe, and it’s clear why safe-haven assets like gold saw a recovery. The week ahead, however, brings high-stakes events like interest rate decisions from major central banks and key US inflation data, all set to influence the gold forecast.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have been range-bound recently, following a pullback from record highs in late October. This decline ended a nine-month winning streak, with November closing in the red. Some investors anticipate a more significant correction before re-entering the market, leading to a cautious short-term gold outlook.

After falling a big 3% last Monday, gold has been trading in tight ranges since, holding mostly within that day’s range. In other words, it hasn’t fallen any further, although it has also made little upside progress.

Gold has found some relief from a weaker US dollar and lower yields in the last couple of days, but it could come under renewed pressure as the greenback’s weakness could be temporary, while easing Middle East tension owing to the ceasefire agreement point to lower haven demand.

Bitcoin, Gold Analysis: Ceasefire agreements are transitioning from speculation to reality ahead of the holiday season and Trump’s upcoming term. Gold’s rally has stalled below the $2,700 mark as haven demand wanes, while Bitcoin has retreated slightly below the psychological $100,000 level.

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

Already lower on the day thanks to the risk on rally as traders reacted positively to Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, gold took another dive lower in the last hour.

EURUSD, Gold Analysis: In the FX markets, the dollar's pullback from the 107 mark continues to support positive rebounds across currencies. Meanwhile, in the precious metals market, geopolitical tensions and the dollar's cooling momentum have enabled gold to recover from steep post-election drops.

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: The US Dollar’s rally has pushed the yen to levels increasing Bank of Japan intervention risks and pressured silver to retest a critical yearly trendline, raising caution over potential further upward movements in the dollar.