oil WTI

Oil steadies after 3-days of losses. Easing tension in the Middle East saw the geopolitical risk premium fall. However, OPEC+ pushing back its December 1st meeting raises optimism the group will postpone unwinding oil production cuts. Volumes will likely remain low owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to release its highly anticipated monthly report on August 12, 2024. This report is a crucial document for traders and analysts in the energy sector as it provides comprehensive data on oil production, demand forecasts, and inventory levels among member countries. It serves as a key indicator of market trends and potential shifts in oil prices, influencing trading strategies and investment decisions globally.

Market positioning shows an influx of shorts hitting crude oil, in what now looks like a cycle low. And whilst bulls are eying a break of $80, they could benefit from a pullback first.

Crude oil finds itself between a rock and a hard place where technical levels are concerned, although that doesn't mean it can't at least make a minor bullish breakout before another leg lower. Price action on bitcoin appears to be more constructive for bulls, at least over the near term.

Thanksgiving in the US has made for a very quiet second half to the week for traders, but with a key US inflation report and an OPEC meeting on tap then volatility is expected to return next week. Also note that Australia releases inflation figures which could be the deciding factor as to whether the RBA hold or hike at their final meeting of the year.

The rapid decline of oil prices last week has seen calls for $100 WTI come into question. But with prices showing signs of stability above $80 on Friday and Iran declaring war on Palestine, oil prices will be closely watched due to concerns of a supply disruption potentially on the horizon.

The combination of softer US economic data and yields pulling back from their highs allowed risk assets to sigh in relief and lift themselves cautiously from their cycle lows. Although oil prices plunged at the prospects of a struggling consumer due to low gasoline demand, sending WTI crude oil 5.5% lower during its worst day this year.

WTI crude has risen to $91.65 per barrel (bbl) at time of writing, with a $93.44 high Brent crude oil has risen to $94.58 per barrel (bbl) at time of writing, with a $95.66 high The US dollar index has risen to 105.2 with strong momentum

WTI crude oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive week despite a recovery of the US dollar. Whilst it shows the potential to pull back from the $77 highs, short-covering of large speculators and managed funds over the past couple of weeks suggests it could be headed towards $80.

USD/JPY falls ahead of debt ceiling talks. Oil edges lower after Chines trade data, US CPI in focus.

US futures and Asian indices partially handed back some of yesterday’s gains and oil touched a 1-month low as yesterday’s optimism shows early signs of petering out.