NFP

The USD/JPY forecast is subject to change greatly in the coming weeks with US CPI due next week followed by FOMC and BoJ decisions the following week.

The Fed is likely, but not certain, to cut interest rates by 25bps later this month, and a strong NFP report could reopen the door for close decision.

The US Dollar has finally pulled back. But – there’s now a key support level in play and tomorrow’s NFP report can be a major market mover, as it’s an early look at October activity in the world’s largest economy.

Coming in the lead up to a tightly-contested Presidential election, this month’s NFP report could have an outsized impact on sentiment and the US dollar.

Friday’s strong jobs report means the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates aggressively, but a strong economy nonetheless should support risk assets.

Yes, I may have just given the USD the kiss of death with that headline. Besides, the dollar has already rallied for four days into the release, so it may take a strong report overall to avoid a profit-taking pullback.

The US economy is anticipated to add 140K jobs in September following the 142K expansion the month prior.

The leading indicators point to a potentially better-than-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 130K-200K range

EURUSD Forecast: With the US dollar stabilizing above the 100-mark for about a month, a double top on the EURUSD at the 1.120 resistance is in question. This comes alongside declining inflation and dovish sentiment in the Eurozone.

Like it or hate it, there is clearly demand for the USD index around 100. And should NFP and ISMs outperform against next week, it might spark a dollar rebound.

As we approach the release of the US August non-farm payrolls report on 6 September 2024, it's worth reflecting on the complex interplay between economic indicators and market sentiment. The unexpected rise in unemployment to 4.3% in July sparked significant market reactions, highlighting the delicate balance between economic health and monetary policy.