Gold

Gold just finished its worst month in more than a year, and Bitcoin was a big beneficiary as anti-fiat flows drove into crypto-currencies following the Presidential election win of Donald Trump.

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.

Gold has found some relief from a weaker US dollar and lower yields in the last couple of days, but it could come under renewed pressure as the greenback’s weakness could be temporary, while easing Middle East tension owing to the ceasefire agreement point to lower haven demand.

Last week was the strongest weekly outing for gold since the regional banking crisis in 2023; but gold’s nine-month streak of gains is at risk as the metal finally pulled back in November.

Bitcoin, Gold Analysis: Ceasefire agreements are transitioning from speculation to reality ahead of the holiday season and Trump’s upcoming term. Gold’s rally has stalled below the $2,700 mark as haven demand wanes, while Bitcoin has retreated slightly below the psychological $100,000 level.

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

Already lower on the day thanks to the risk on rally as traders reacted positively to Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, gold took another dive lower in the last hour.

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.

The price of gold trades back above the 50-Day SMA ($2664) as it stages a five-day rally for the first time since March.

Welcome to Friday! Bitcoin inches closer to $100K, with spot and futures markets hitting record highs. Gold breaks above its 50DMA, bolstering bullish picture, while crude oil builds momentum despite lighter volumes. ASX 200 futures remain a buy-on-dips play, edging closer to record highs. EUR/USD stays under pressure, hitting fresh 2024 lows.