Forex Friday

The EUR/USD managed to bounce back to the $1.05 area after testing liquidity below this month’s earlier low of 1.0460 this morning, where traders apparently took profit after a 5-day losing run. The EUR/USD outlook remains negative, however, even if ECB President Christine Lagarde was not as dovish as some might have expected given the political and economic situations in the Eurozone.

The USD/JPY forecast is subject to change greatly in the coming weeks with US CPI due next week followed by FOMC and BoJ decisions the following week.

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: As the final BOJ meeting for 2024 approaches, combined with holiday season trends, the Yen and Silver are poised for potential bullish rebounds. However, the strength of the Dollar rally remains in question.

Weak GDP figures saw interest rates traders fully price in three 25bp RBA cuts by Feb 2026. And AUD/USD could have traded much lower on Wednesday, were it not for a stronger yuan coming to the Aussies rescue later in the day.

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.

We will maintain our bearish EUR/USD forecast for the time being. This pair remains rooted in a bear trend, not just because of the threats of tariffs in 2025, but more so because of weakness in the eurozone economy and therefore the potential for more ECB rate cuts than from the Fed in the US, where even a December rate cut is not fully priced in, let alone cuts in 2025, after Trump’s election victory.

Against a backdrop of weakening economic data, looming tariffs from the US in 2025 and a struggling Chinese economy (bad for Eurozone exports), the euro outlook remains negative, putting pairs such as the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY into focus – the latter having just formed a bearish technical signal.

With Kashkari throwing the word ‘pause’ into the mix ahead of a US CPI report, traders should brace themselves for further USD gains should it come in hotter than expected.

While one can argue the greenback has made a short-term peak, the overall dollar forecast remains positive, especially against currencies subject to increased tariff risks from Trump’s administration.

Market participants are closely watching the potential impact of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets, given the possibility of renewed tariffs. This is the primary factor affecting the EUR/USD forecast, likely limiting gains to around 1.0900 and exposing further downside in the near-term outlook.

Soft data and month-end flows jolted the USD at its cycle highs. If the USD pulls back even slightly, it could help lift AUD/USD from its lows and track the yuan higher.