FOMC

Gold’s now testing its 100-day MA and the 14-day RSI is at its lowest level in a year, hinting at a near-term bounce.

The expected 25 cut was delivered. But the Fed were understandably cautious regarding future cuts, given they don't know which or how many of Trump’s inflationary policies will see the day of light. And that means the current pullback on the USD and yields could be limited.

US index futures edged higher in early European trading, but after a strong two-day rally, momentum might slow ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. With a 25-basis-point rate cut fully priced in, the focus will shift to the Fed's tone on future cuts.

Gold Outlook: As market certainty grows post-U.S. elections and the dollar rallies in response to potential inflation risks, gold has faced a sharp pullback. The yellow metal, previously in overbought territory on its monthly timeframe, has plunged nearly 100 points, recharging momentum ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting.

We finally get a bit of a breather from the US election and can shift out attention to today’s BOE and FOMC meetings, making it an ideal time to catch up on GBP/USD.

The US dollar and yields have enjoyed a strong rally over the past five weeks, thanks to hotter US data, Fed members pushing back on rate cuts, and Trump leading in many polls. But with the US election on our doorstep and the potential for a delayed result, could this tie the Fed’s hands at this week’s meeting?

EURUSD Forecast: EURUSD’s recent bullish reversal above the 1.08 mark will face a critical test this week as US election results and the FOMC meeting inject volatility into the markets.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: In the coming week, crude oil markets face heightened volatility risks due to a closely contested US election on Tuesday, uncertain FOMC meeting on Thursday, and persistent geopolitical conflicts.

Traders are pricing in roughly a 1-in-10 chance that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at its November, but it may take 4 more better-than-expected US economic reports in a row.

Each of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks will present their observations on economic conditions in their respective districts, which provides a broader view of the U.S. economy.

Market pricing appears to be sobering up and has done away with 50bp Fed cuts. But it could still be argued pricing still remains too dovish for next year, and EUR/USD may have further to fall should US data continue to outperform expectations while the ECB up their dovish rhetoric.