DXY

Last quarter was the largest quarterly gain for DXY since Q1 of 2015, and the third largest quarterly gain for the Dollar index in the past 30 years.

GBPUSD Forecast: the pound’s drop against the dollar’s rally was cushioned at the 1.2480 low, further supported by rate hold expectations given the inflationary risks of UK’s new labor law. However, today’s contracting GDP reading at -0.1% reflects growth concerns and adds complexities to next week’s BOE decision.

It’s been a strong Q4 for the US Dollar and the currency continues to test a big spot of longer-term resistance. But will the Fed usher in another massive USD rally in 2025?

US Dollar rebounded off trend support early in the month with the bulls in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed. Battle lines drawn on the DXY weekly technical chart.

EURUSD, DXY Forecast: the final reports for the economic calendar’s major events, including the US CPI and FOMC meeting, are due between today and next Wednesday, setting 2024’s final volatility wave ahead of the holidays and 2025’s narrative.

A rebound off trend support keeps the focus on a breakout of the weekly range heading into NFPs on Friday. Battle lines drawn on the DXY short-term technical charts.

EURUSD, Dow Forecast: The EURUSD maintains its rebound above the key 1.0333 level, while the Dow pauses near record highs above 45,000, and the DXY holds steady at critical support ahead of Friday's NFP.

While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.

GBP/USD held steady on Friday but is on track for its largest weekly rise since mid-September as the US dollar gave back some of its Trump victory gains.

USDJPY Forecast: Friday's rise in Tokyo CPI from 1.8% to 2.2% drove USDJPY below the critical 150 level. A pivotal week of US economic data ahead, including ISM PMIs and Non-Farm Payrolls, is set to heighten volatility risks for the pair.

EURUSD and Nasdaq Outlook: As the DXY edges closer to breaking 2023 highs, bearish risks loom large for EURUSD. Meanwhile, NVDIA earnings are boosting long-term bullish potential for the Nasdaq following the Trump rally.