CPI

EURUSD Forecast: The EUR/USD enters 2025 on a bearish note following a sharp downturn at the end of 2024. However, extreme oversold levels hint at potential bullish reversals. Key market-moving factors, including Eurozone inflation data and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, are in focus this week, adding volatility risks.

Showcasing the GBP strength is the struggling EUR/GBP. With the latter testing the 0.82 support area, sterling is therefore trading at its best levels since March 2022 against the euro. But against the dollar, it has been held back. In fact, I reckon there is a good chance we may see the GBP/USD start to head lower again and may even go on to break 1.2500 support, once UK’s services inflation eases more significantly - possibly in early next year. If seen, that would allow the BoE to turn more dovish. So, the GBP/USD outlook remains bearish heading into 2025.

EURUSD, DXY Forecast: the final reports for the economic calendar’s major events, including the US CPI and FOMC meeting, are due between today and next Wednesday, setting 2024’s final volatility wave ahead of the holidays and 2025’s narrative.

USD/JPY rallies to a fresh monthly high (152.18) ahead of the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bps regardless of the CPI reading, though a hotter-than-expected print could certainly raise some questions for USD/CAD

USDJPY, Dow, Nasdaq Analysis: With forecasts pointing to an uptick in US inflation rates and overbought conditions in US indices, a critical wave of volatility is anticipated ahead of the holidays.

Ahead of key macro events, the EUR/USD forecast remains modestly bearish, although the currency pair has found some love today thanks to optimism about more stimulus measures being introduced in China, one of the Eurozone’s major exports destinations.

GBPUSD, Gold Analysis: As we approach the final central bank decisions for 2024 from the Fed, BOJ, and BOE, major reforms in the Middle East are adding layers of volatility to the US Dollar and haven assets ahead of the holidays.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: The bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 is colliding with significant Middle Eastern reforms. OPEC’s decision to extend its output cuts into 2025 has stabilized oil prices near their 4-year support zone, which will be tested this week by Chinese economic data, US inflation reports, and Middle East developments.

GBPUSD, EURJPY: Inflation indicators between the eurozone and the Japanese economy are due this week, following the jump in UK’s inflation rates next week, adding reversal potential to the dollar’s rally ahead of Trump’s presidency.

USDJPY Forecast: The bull run of the US Dollar Index has pushed the USDJPY back in the borders of its primary uptrend, and further volatility risks are on the horizon with the US CPI results.