Commodities

A tidal wave of high-grade supply from Guinea’s Simandou project threatens to crush iron ore prices in 2025. With Chinese port inventories near record highs and global steel output faltering, the $100 iron ore era looks increasingly shaky. Bears have waited years for fundamentals to reassert themselves; next year could finally be their moment.

See a technical preview of our 2025 Gold Outlook!

See a fundamental preview of our 2025 Gold Outlook!

See a preview of our full 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

See a preview of our 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

Global markets struggle as Asian stocks fall, Nasdaq gains, and coffee futures hit record highs amid supply concerns. Europe faces widening productivity gaps with the U.S., while the DAX maintains its bullish momentum. Key support at 20,193 and resistance at 21,000 set the stage for the next move. With critical rate decisions from the Fed, BoJ, and BoE ahead, investors face a complex landscape.

Not only are traders increasingly long the US dollar, they are also piling into short EUR/USD bets. And that could pave the way for a sub-parity euro next year.

Crude Oil, Gold Forecast: Following China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, demand sentiment for Chinese oil and gold has surged, pushing crude oil above $70 and gold above $2,700. Middle East tensions continue to reinforce support levels for these commodities as drastic regional developments unfold.

Iron ore and copper shine as China hints at supercharged stimulus, sparking a metals rally hotter than a blast furnace. With CEWC still ahead, could this be just the start of an electrifying run higher?

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure yen futures for the first time in six weeks. And it did not come without warning from myself or market positioning over the prior two weeks. Bullish exposure is certainly not extreme at just 2.4k contracts, but with odds of a BOJ hike rising and asset managers net-short by just 5.8k contracts, we could be looking at a stronger yen as we head into the new year given the turbulence we may face during Trump’s second term.

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.