AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.

AUD/USD snapped a 5-week losing streak with a marginal 0.3% gain. But it was the most volatile week since April thanks to the US election, and volatility is expected to remain elevated.

Election week is finally upon us, and could even supersede the FOMC meeting given its implications for global trade depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. And that puts AUD/USD in the crosshairs of volatility.

The selloff on AUD/USD extended into its fourth week, and closed beneath the 200-day average on Friday. The Aussie shows the potential to fall for a fifth week, should Trump continue to gain traction in election polls and US data outperforms.

AUD/USD may have finished lower for the third week, but another bumper employment report and reduced bets of easing shook some Aussie bears out of their positions around the 200-day SMA on Thursday and Friday.

We could be in for some choppy trade for AUD/USD this week given the lack of top-tier data from the US and Australia, and the fact we've already seen a decent mover lower on the pair. Unless Australia's employment figures deliver a curveball.

The USD is surging and markets are betting that the RNZZ could cut rates by 100bp by December. Failure to do hint at such a move could see AUD/NZD track AUD/USD lower.

Soft US inflation data saw AUD/USD reach a 19-month high of 0.6930 and mark its first weekly close above 69c since February 2023.

AUD/USD is hinting at a breakout ahead of the weekend. But whether it can hold on to any breakout gains (should they arrive) may be down to next week's RBA meeting and US inflation report.

AUD/USD snapped a 2-week losing streak and was up against all FX majors, except the Japanese yen. The bias remains to seek dips tis week.