Asian Open

Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.

I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.

ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were allowed to print a fresh record high on a daily-close basis. Yet 8500 remains a clear level of resistance, and one which prompted a potential bearish reversal pattern.

Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

The USD index defied the 3-day retracement that dared to defy its bullish trend and now appears on the cusp of a breakout. While this could signify EUR/USD dropping below 105, it may also equate to a bullish breakout on USD/JPY.

Hot CPI from Canada, a rise of geopolitical tensions and increased threat of tariffs played nicely for commodity FX bulls, with AUD, CAD and NZD leading the pack among FX majors on Tuesday. And there could be some wriggle room for further gains.

The USD retraced lower from its 1-year high for a second day, allowing AUD/USD to post a solid bounce from its cycle low. And price action suggest its bounce may not be over just yet.

The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.

The USD rally is reminiscent of the one seen in July which, if to be repeated, could see it tag 108.29 over the next month. But already it appears to be ahead of schedule. USD/JPY looks set to make a break for 156 which seems within easy reach.