Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bulls Eye Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CHF poised to mark third consecutive weekly advance- resistance in view
USD/CHF monthly opening-range preserved head of NFP- breakout imminent
Resistance 9144, 9224/41 (key), 9310- Support 9007, 8957 (key), 8825

The USD/CHF breakout is approaching initial resistance hurdles early in the month with the January opening-range set just below. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart into the star of the year.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF had rebounded off confluent uptrend support and that, “losses should be limited to 52-week moving average (currently ~8783) IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 89 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF broke higher that week with the rally extending nearly 4.7% off the December lows into the start of the month.

The bulls are poised to mark a third consecutive weekly advance with USD/CHF now approaching lateral resistance at the objective 2024 high-close at 9144. A more significant technical consideration is eyed just higher at 9224/41- a region defined by the 2024 swing high and the 2023 yearly open. Note that this zone converges on the medina-line over the next few weeks and a breach / close above would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the 100% extension at 9310 and the 2021 high-week close / 2017 swing low 61.8% retracement at 9412/54- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

The weekly / monthly range low rests at 9007 with initial support seen at the November swing high at 8957. Ultimately a break / close below the lower parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / invalidate the September uptrend. Subsequent support seen with the 52-week moving average (currently ~8825) and the 2021 swing low at 8758- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CHF rally is approaching initial resistance just higher- risk for possible price inflection. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 9144 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards critical resistance at 9224/41.

Keep in mind the monthly opening-range is preserved heading into the close of the week with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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