Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bulls Eye Pivotal Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF poised to snap five-week advance- responding to long-term technical resistance.
• USD/CHF September rally may be vulnerable- risk for near-term exhaustion / price inflection.
• Resistance 8900 (key), 9042/45, 9144- Support 8757/75, 8907 (key), 8581

The US Dollar is poised to snap a five-week winning streak against the Swiss Franc with USD/CHF responding to a major resistance zone at multi-month highs.  While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction while below longer-term resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF was testing confluent resistance and that, “the immediate focus is on a breakout of the November opening-range (the election-day range) for guidance. Losses would need to be limited to 8526 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the yearly moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF broke higher the following week with a 2.5% rally off the monthly low extending into key resistance last week the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range near the 89-handle.

Note that that last week’s high confirms a three-point trendline off the 2022 high (red) with the median-line of a newly identified pitchfork (blue) also converging on this threshold. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone with the broader uptrend at risk while below.

Initial weekly support now rests with the 2021 low / 52-week moving average at 8758/75 and is backed closely by the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance at 8709- we’ll reserve this threshold as our medium-term bullish invalidation level. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the September rally / suggest a more significant high was registered last week. Subsequent support rests with the October weekly reversal close / 61.8% retracement at 8576/81.

A topside breach / close above the 89-handle would mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 78.6% retracement / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 9042/45 and the yearly high-close at 9144- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CHF rally exhausted into confluent resistance last week and while the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8709 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 89 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex