Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Relent at Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CHF rally responds to technical resistance- risk for larger bull-market correction
USD/CHF initial support now in view into the 200-day moving average- risk for price inflection
Resistance 8899 (key), 8988, 9042/45- Support ~8819/26, 8758, 8698-8709 (key)

The US Dollar snapped a five-day winning streak on Friday with USD/CHF reversing off confluent uptrend resistance. Although the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction within the multi-month uptrend. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Fanc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF was testing a major pivot zone ahead of the US elections / the Fed rate decision with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below technical resistance around the 87-handle. The US Dollar ripped higher the following day with a topside breach unleashing a rally of more than 3.5% off the November low.

The rally exhausted into Fibonacci resistance last week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range around the 89-handle- note that pitchfork resistance also converges on this threshold and further highlights its technical significance. Daily momentum is now threatening a break back from overbought territory and the broader September rally remains vulnerable while below this threshold.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

A closer look at Swissie price action shows USD/CHF reversing off the upper parallel with precision last week with the pullback now approaching initial support at the 200-day moving average / June low / 2021 yearly open at 8819/27- note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few days. A break / close below this slope would threaten a larger correction within the multi-month uptrend with subsequent support seen at the 2021 low at 8758 and the 38.2% retracements at 8698-8709- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level.

A topside breach / close above 8900 is needed to mark uptrend resumption with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the May low near 8988 and the 78.6% retracement / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 9042/45- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CHF breakout has extended into / responded to confluent technical resistance with the pullback now approaching initial uptrend support- looking for a reaction on test of the median-line. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8700 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 8900 needed to mark resumption of the September uptrend.

Keep in mind the economic docket is rather light until next week’s key US inflation data- watch the weekly closes here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.