Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ extends the post-election rally

US futures

Dow future 0.38% at 44179

S&P futures 0.26% at 6016

Nasdaq futures 0.3% at 21190

In Europe

FTSE 0.94% at 8138

Dax 1.7% at 19528

Stocks rise, adding to last week’s election-inspired gains
US inflation data & Fed speakers this week
Crypto stocks jump as Bitcoin hits 82k
Oil falls on China demand concerns

More record highs as the Trump trade continues

U.S. stocks are set to open higher, extending gains from last week. Trump's victory continues to boost the market as investors await the next round of economic data, which could decide whether the rally can continue.

Major indices were up last week as Trump won the US election. Optimism about deregulation and pro-business policy has helped the P500 breakthrough 6000, and the Dow Jones reached 44,000 on Friday. The latter also saw its best week in every year, and the Nasdaq reached record levels.

Stocks are on a solid footing as we approach the end of the year, with US stocks up 25% year to date on optimism surrounding AI, the start of Fed rate cuts, and Goldilocks economic data.

Attention will now be turned to Wednesday's CPI data and a raft of other data points this week, which could provide more clues about the health of the US economy and the outlook for interest rates.

The Fed cut rates 25 basis points last week, and the market is pricing in just below a 70% probability of another move in December. This week, several Federal Reserve officials, including chair Jerome Powell, will speak, which could shed more light on the outlook for monetary policy in light of Trump's.

The risk to this rally would be if US inflation data comes in hotter than expected and if Fed speakers point to a significant slowdown in rate cut expectations. Should the market start to fret that rates will remain high for longer, this could offset some of the Trump trade enthusiasm.

Corporate news

Tesla is rising 7% higher, extending gains from last week, on optimism that Elon Musk’s company will get favorable treatment under Trump after Musk gave Trump extensive support in his presidential campaign. Tesla is now worth over $1 trillion.

Coinbase shares are up 16%. Bitcoin-related stocks are soaring as the cryptocurrency surged to 82k, a fresh all-time high on optimism that Trump will implement pro-crypto policies and deregulate the sector.

Trump Media&Technology is set to open over 5% higher, continuing Friday's sharp gains after Trump said he had no intention of selling his shares in the company.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 has broken out above 20,750, the July high, rising above 21k to fresh all-time highs. The RSI supports further upside while it remains out of overbought territory. Buyers will look towards 21500 and 22k as the next logical targets. Support can be seen at 20,750, with a break below here negating the near term uptrend, bringing 20k back into focus.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising to a fresh four-month high on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at a slower pace owing to President Trump's inflationary policies. This week, US inflation data and comments from Fed speakers will be released for clues on policy direction.

EUR/USD has tumbled to its lowest level since April on worries that Trump’s trade tariffs could hurt the fragile economic recovery in the region and could see the ECB cut interest rates more rapidly to support the economy. Political uncertainty in Germany is adding to the downbeat mood towards the dollar.

GBP/USD has fallen below 1.29 amid USD strength and ahead of a busy week for UK economic data, with unemployment, GDP, and retail sales data set to be released this week.

Oil falls on China demand concerns

Oil prices are rising, giving back last week's modest gains as a weakening hurricane Rafael eases supply worries and after disappointing stimulus measures from China.

China announced a further $1.4 trillion in stimulus measures to help indebted local governments; however, it fell short of market expectations, raising concerns over the demand outlook for China, the world's second-largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, hurricane Rafael is also starting to weaken, meaning that offline oil output should return to normal in the coming days.

This week see the release of OPEC and the IEA's monthly oil reports, which could shed more light on supply and demand outlooks. In the previous report, both lowered their price and demand forecasts.

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