CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
✖

Gold forecast: XAUUSD defends support ahead of key data and elections

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
June 28, 2024 2:00 PM

Gold and silver have been on the rise in the last couple of days, recovering from weakness earlier in the week. Once again, gold has risen alongside equity markets, suggesting the recovery is not entirely driven by haven flows amid uncertainty surrounding the upcoming French snap elections, which appears to have only impacted the local stock and bond, as well as regional, markets. That said, the election uncertainty has without a doubt helped to keep gold supported at least partially. In any event, our gold forecast remains bullish insofar as the long-term outlook is concerned.

 

French election uncertainty boost gold forecast

 

The first round of French parliamentary election is occurring this Sunday and the full extent of Marine Le Pen's National Rally party’s progress will likely be known after the run-offs on July 7. Recent polls indicate that the far-right RN party is still leading. French newspaper Les Echos on Friday revealed a poll that shows RN might win as much as 37% of the popular vote. It was up two percentage points from the last publication of the poll, compiled by OpinionWay a week ago. Meanwhile, Macron's centrist bloc, Together, was down 2 percentage points to 20%, while the New Popular Front leftwing alliance was seen reaching 28% of the vote. This election uncertainty has positively influenced the gold forecast.

 

Key US data on tap: Core PCE impact on XAUUSD forecast

 

Meanwhile, as far as today’s session is concerned, we have an important piece of data coming up, namely the May core PCE Price Index. This is expected to have risen by 0.1% month-on-month compared to a rise of 0.2% the month before. On a year-over-year basis, it is seen printing +2.6% for May, down from +2.8% y/y in April. If the actual data turns out to be weaker, then that could send bond yields lower, which in turn should help to boost the appeal of low- and zero-yielding assets like gold.

 

Upcoming US NFP and CPI: Gold forecast implications

 

More US economic data is to come in the next couple of weeks, with the June non-farm jobs report due on Friday of next week, followed by the CPI report on July 11.

 

Ahead of these data releases, the US dollar index was marginally higher on the week, on course to finish higher for the fourth consecutive week – unless the PCE data comes in weaker or otherwise the dollar falls later on in the day. It is worth pointing out that the greenback has become investors’ preferred FX hedge against political uncertainty in Europe. Currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, which have historically been the preference, have been hurt by dovish central banks in their respective countries. This dynamic also affects the gold forecast.

 

Gold forecast: XAUUSD technical analysis

 

Source: TradingView.com

 

The higher highs and higher lows on gold chart remain intact, although there are some concerns about the recent loss of bullish momentum. But if the consolidation has done one thing is that it has allowed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to work off its ‘overbought’ conditions on multiple time frames, including the long-term charts like the weekly and monthly. Given the minimal pullback from the all-time highs, this has been achieved mainly through time, than price action, which is always a bullish sign.

 

Therefore, the potential head and shoulders formation that you may be able to observe on the daily time frame could be a bear trap and, in any event, may not breakdown the pattern’s neckline around the key $2300 support area.

 

In fact, one could argue that gold is consolidating inside a bull flag continuation pattern and in the last couple of days it has started to threaten a breakout. So, the bears will have to exert significant pressure here to turn the tide meaningfully in their favour.

 

The bulls have pushed gold prices above short-term resistance at $2325. The next level of potential resistance comes in around the $2365 area. If we see a move above this level, then that would provide the clearest signal yet that the bull trend has indeed resumed.

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

 

 

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025