Gold Forecast: Tepid Trump Tariff Talk Has Bulls Eyeing Record High

Gold Key Takeaways

There are early signs that Trump 2.0 tariff policies may be less aggressive than feared.
Gold is benefiting more from the dollar’s decline than a fading desire for safe haven assets.
Gold buyers may now be turning their eyes upward for a retest of the record highs near $2790 in the coming days, if not a breakout to $2800+.

We’re just over 24 hours into President Donald Trump’s second term as US president, and traders are still trying to remember how to navigate the relentless stream of headlines that drive markets under the real-estate-mogul-turned-politician.

To boil it down simply, traders are focused on the potential for aggressive tariffs and a potential trade war first and foremost, and on that front, there are early signs that Trump 2.0 trade policies may be less aggressive than feared.

The President refrained from issuing new tariffs on “Day 1” despite campaign promises, and the wording of today’s much-ballyhooed threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1 was less emphatic than many had come to expect from Trump (“We are thinking in terms of 25 percent on Mexico and Canada…”).

In any event, the mere fact that he’s singling out a couple countries for targeted threats suggests that a universal, across-the-board tariff on all imports to the US is still a way off, if even on the table at all. The apparently gradual approach to tariffs has weighed on the US dollar (the weakest major currency so far this week) and boosted risk assets, with US indices making another run toward record highs.

Gold Technical Analysis – XAU/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX.

Meanwhile, gold appears to be benefiting more from the dollar’s decline than the fading desire for safe haven assets. As the chart above shows, the yellow metal has broken definitively above horizontal resistance in the $2715-20 area to hit its highest level in 2.5 months.

Following the bullish breakout from the November-December symmetrical triangle pattern, gold buyers may now be turning their eyes upward for a retest of the record highs near $2790 in the coming days, if not a breakout to $2800+.

Conversely, a reversal back below the key $2715 would call the near-term bullish bias into question and potentially open the door for a move back down toward the 100-day MA near $2650.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.