GBPUSD Forecast: Rebound from 15-Year Pattern
Key Events:
- BOE Gov Bailey’s Speech at the IMF Meetings (Tuesday & Thursday)
- UK and US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Thursday)
- Technical Analysis: GBPUSD
Following the notable drop in the UK year-on-year consumer price inflation to 1.7%, below both the 1.9% market expectations and the BOE’s 2% target, attention turns to upcoming data. Insights into the direction of UK monetary policy and the health of the economy will be closely watched in Thursday’s UK flash PMIs and Governor Bailey's speeches at the IMF meetings on Tuesday and Thursday.
The upcoming monetary policy decision for the British pound is coinciding with that of the Fed on Nov 7th, following the US elections and expected market volatility on Nov 5th. Markets appear to have already priced in a rate cut from the BOE, but further movements will likely be driven by Bailey’s statements this week. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index and EURUSD are showing signs of momentum exhaustion, suggesting a possible reversal, which could support a bullish continuation for the pound.
Despite recent pressures, the GBPUSD remains above the 1.30 mark, supported by the 15-year consolidation pattern. Unless a confirmed close below the 1.30-1.29 zone occurs, the bullish outlook remains intact.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD Forecast: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
The pound is currently rebounding from the upper border of its 15-year consolidation and trendline that connects the lower highs between 2014 (1.7191) and 2021(1.4250).
Beyond the significance of the following alignment, a bearish engulfing pattern alongside an oversold relative strength index indicator as per the history of the monthly time frame suggest a bearish reversal, leaving the scenarios in the following manner:
Bullish Scenario
If the 1.30-1.29 support zone holds, the pound could break higher, back towards the 1.34 and 1.37 price zones.
Bearish Scenario
A close below 1.2930 would suggest a deeper decline, with potential support levels at 1.2570 and 1.22.
--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.
StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.
The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.
This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.
Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.
StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.
Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets
We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
© FOREX.COM 2025