CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
✖

GBP/USD forecast: Cable rebounds as US dollar eases amid firmer risk appetite

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
October 24, 2024 3:23 PM

The US dollar eased back in the first half of Thursday’s session after reaching its highest point since July against a basket of foreign currencies, yesterday. A firmer risk tone owing to positive company earnings, slight easing of bond yields and technical selling all weighed on the US dollar. However, the trend remains bullish for the greenback, especially as we are now getting quite close to the US presidential election, with Trump starting to lead in the polls. This should keep the ongoing GBP/USD forecast mildly bearish, despite today’s recovery in the cable.

 

 

US jobless claims beat ahead of PMI data

 

The dollar’s weakness comes a day after Treasury yields rose to a three-month high with the market expecting economic data to remain strong and the US presidential elections to persuade the Fed to cut rates at a slower pace.

Indeed, today’s main US data release – the weekly jobless claims figure – came in better than expected at 227K vs. 243K eyed. Looking ahead, US PMI figures are in focus and are expected to show the services PMI essentially remained unchanged at 55.0 in October, whilst manufacturing PMI is expected to increase only slightly to still remain below the expansion threshold at 47.5.

 

GBP/USD forecast: UK PMIs disappoint

 

Earlier today, we had the European PMIs showing an overall mixed picture from the region. But the latest UK PMIs won’t help the pound much, if at all. Both the services (51.2) and manufacturing (51.8) PMIs were slightly below expectations, although still managed to remain in the positive territory. However, the recent publication of softer UK CPI data and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’ indications that the pace of policy easing could increase if inflation data allowed it, means sterling will struggle to gain upside traction without an improvement in UK data, or a sharp deterioration in US data.

 

US election is the most important risk to GBP/USD forecast

 

So, the broader trend for GBP/USD continues to lean bearish, with the US dollar staying strong as we approach the US presidential election. Donald Trump gaining momentum in the polls has markets factoring in a possible win, which could keep the greenback well-supported. He has gained a slight advantage in the race, leading by two percentage points in the Wall Street Journal survey. If Trump secures victory, we’re likely to see currencies like the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and euro under pressure, with the British pound also feeling the strain. Trump's tough stance on tariffs, particularly on European and Mexican car imports, has already given the dollar a boost. His policies are also considered to be inflationary, which could result in more gradual Fed rate cuts. But given this is a very close race, there still remains plenty of room for the dollar to run if Trump wins. The recent wave of dollar buying certainly hints at growing confidence in this outcome.

 

Technical GBP/USD forecast: Key levels to watch

 

Source: TradingView.com

 

The GBP/USD managed to bounce right where it needed to: at just over the 1.2900 handle. This is where the trend line going back to September 2022 comes into play. But now, price is approaching key resistance around the 1.2980-1.3000 area, which must be reclaimed to boost the appeal of the cable for the bulls. If reclaimed, we could see price squeeze higher towards 1.3050 initially and then potentially climb to the next area of resistance around 1.3150. However, if resistance holds here, then the bears will likely have another crack at the bullish trend line. Potential supports below the trend will come in around 1.2870, followed by 1.2800.

 

All told, the technical GBP/USD forecast still remains bearish despite today’s recovery, as are yet to see a clear bullish reversal pattern on the chart.

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

 

 

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025