Forex

Commodity currencies continued to feel the heat of the Trump trade, while asset managers stepped away from stocks in a month usually associated with strong gains. Gold seems likely to remain supported in the current environment, but for now we seem to be in a holding pattern waiting for fresh catalysts to kick off 2025.

USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows after Canadian PM Trudeau resigned, triggering a leadership race and likely early federal election.

The dollar is now going to be more headline- driven and potentially boost the appeal of safe haven yen. For now, it may be too early to have a bearish USD/JPY forecast, especially ahead of this week’s key data highlights. But we could see the USD/JPY drift back lower in the days ahead anyway, as the focus turns to data and monetary policy.

Chinese consumer confidence is weak, domestic consumption remains muted, and unemployment among youth has surged, raising concerns about unrest and long-term stagnation.

Divergent monetary policies between the ECB and BOJ alongside trade wars and demand for safety could make things tricky for EUR/JPY bulls in 2025.

The trend is your friend, but in this case, I am going against that notion to provide a short fundamental idea on the rallying USD/JPY for 2025. That doesn’t mean you need to step in right away, but only once the appropriate bearish pattern emerges and we have a confirmation of a top.

Gold’s relentless 2024 rally has defied strong dollar headwinds and rising yields, smashing records and flipping traditional relationships on their head. Is it still a safe haven, or has the game changed for good?

Despite the RBA remaining hawkish for much of the year, the AUD/USD got toasted nevertheless.

See a technical preview of our full 2025 AUD/USD Outlook report!

See a fundamental preview of our full 2025 AUD/USD Outlook report!

See a technical preview of our full 2025 EUR/USD Outlook report!