Forex

How a shift in trade policy, the extension of tax cuts, the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and potential threats to Federal Reserve independence could pave the way for a weaker greenback under Trump.

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.

Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.

The EUR/JPY is our featured technical chart, for not only a technical breakdown is looking increasingly likely, but the macro back backdrop makes for a bearish fundamental backdrop. In short, the euro is undermined because of Europe’s persistent economic and political challenges, while a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan magnifies the yen's appeal. Against this backdrop, our short-term EUR/JPY forecast is bearish.

Risk sentiment and rate differentials are dictating directional risks for USD/NOK and NOK/JPY. With weakening ties to US rates and oil, and carry trade flows dominating NOK/JPY, we look at setups as we head toward year-end.

While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.

I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.

EUR/USD and AUD/USD are heading into their strongest month, hinting at rally potential after November drops.

With a jam-packed calendar this week, including, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the closely watched JOLTS Job Openings report, and the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report to come, traders are bracing for volatility. These data points are expected to influence the USD/JPY forecast, especially with both the Fed and BoJ policy decisions looming in December.

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.