EUR/USD Pushes Above 50-Day SMA for First Time Since October
US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD
EUR/USD pushes above the 50-Day SMA (1.0444) for the first time since October as it climbs to a fresh monthly high (1.0457), but the recent advance in the exchange rate may turn out to be temporary should it struggle to close above the moving average.
EUR/USD Pushes Above 50-Day SMA for First Time Since October
EUR/USD extends the rally from the start of the week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its highest level since September, and the exchange rate may no longer track the negative slope in the moving average amid the break above the opening range for January.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
However, the Euro may face headwinds ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on January 30 as Vice-President Luis de Guindos acknowledges that ‘the balance of macroeconomic risks has shifted from concerns about high inflation to concerns about low growth’ while speaking at the 15th Spain Investors Day.
Vice-President Guindos went on to say that ‘if the incoming data confirm our baseline, the policy trajectory is clear, and we expect to continue to further reduce the restrictiveness of monetary policy,’ and the comments suggest the ECB will implement lower interest rates in 2025 amid the progress in bringing down inflation towards its 2% target.
With that said, speculation surrounding the ECB rate decision may sway EUR/USD over the coming days, but the exchange rate may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high (1.0630) should it no longer track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0444).
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD pushes above the opening range for January as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above the 1.0448 (2023 low) to 1.0480 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone bringing the 1.0580 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.0610 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region on the radar.
- Next area of interest comes in around the December high (1.0630), but EUR/USD may continue to track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0444) should it struggle to close above the moving average.
- Need a move below 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) for EUR/USD to threaten the bullish price series, with a close below 1.0200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a move towards parity.
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/JPY Slips to Fresh Monthly Low Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision
USD/CAD Spikes to Fresh Monthly High as Trump Prepares Canada Tariff
GBP/USD Pullback Pushes RSI Toward Oversold Territory
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Struggle to Push Above Weekly High
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.
StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.
The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.
This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.
Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.
StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.
Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets
We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
© FOREX.COM 2025