EURUSD, Gold Forecast: EURUSD Holds Above Parity, Gold Tests $2730 Resistance

Article Outline

Key Events: Trump Policies, PMIs, and BOJ Decision
Technical Analysis: DXY, EURUSD, XAUUSD 3-Day Time Frame

Trump Inauguration Recap

Trump’s latest statements at his inauguration emphasized the return of America’s "golden age," which, in Trump’s terms, translated to strict borders, trade wars, and oil oversupply. Surprisingly, no comments were made about the cryptocurrency industry, despite the release of the Trump and Melania coins, which caused significant overnight market spikes.

Following these statements, the US Dollar slightly retreated from its recent 110 high, accompanied by a pullback in US indices. Oil declined for the fourth consecutive day, falling back to the $75 zone, while gold held its ground above $2700 amid market uncertainty regarding the potential costs of Trump’s policies.

In addition to Trump’s unpredictable remarks as he resumed his market influence, volatility risks this week are expected to peak on Friday with an anticipated BOJ 25 bps rate hike and the release of Eurozone, US, and UK PMI data, events known to significantly impact the EURUSD pair.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

EURUSD Forecast: 3 Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The euro is consolidating near a potential reversal point, supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has rebounded from oversold levels seen in 2023. The 1.0170 level serves as a critical point for the EURUSD’s downtrend from September 2024 to January 2025.

Upside Potential:
If the euro holds above this level, it could climb toward 1.0520, 1.0620, and 1.0850, aligning with the upper border of the descending channel spanning from July 2023 to January 2025.

Downside Risks:
A break below 1.0170 could pave the way for parity at 1.0000, with further downside targeting the 0.99–0.98 zone.

XAUUSD Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold’s bullish trend is currently testing the $2730 resistance level, a barrier that must be cleared to sustain the upward momentum. A firm close above $2730 would confirm a continuation of the uptrend beyond the November–January consolidation, with next resistance levels at $2760 and $2800, and further highs at $2890 and $3050.

Support Levels:
If gold fails to hold above the $2730 resistance, the lower boundary of the consolidation will act as support. A break below the $2700 level could trigger declines toward $2640, $2600, and $2570.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: Rh_waves

On You Tube: Forex.com

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.