EUR/USD Eyes 2023 Low as RSI Flirts with Oversold Zone
US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD
EUR/USD pushes below the November 2023 low (1.0517) after failing to hold within the monthly opening range, with the recent selloff in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) up against oversold territory.
EUR/USD Eyes 2023 Low as RSI Flirts with Oversold Zone
EUR/USD trades to a fresh yearly low (1.0496) as it falls for the fifth consecutive day, and a move below 30 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in the exchange rate like the price action from earlier this year.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
In turn, EUR/USD may attempt to test the 2023 low (1.0448) as it continues to carve a series of lower highs and lows, and data prints coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the US Retail Sales report is anticipated to show another rise in household spending.
US Economic Calendar
US Retail Sales are projected to increase 0.3% in October following the 0.4% expansion the month prior, and a positive development may push the Federal Reserve to unwind its restrictive policy at a slower pace amid little signs of a looming recession.
In turn, waning speculation for a December Fed rate-cut may keep EUR/USD under pressure, but a weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales report may drag on the Greenback as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement lower interest rates at its last meeting for 2024.
With that said, EUR/USD may attempt to retrace the decline from earlier this week to keep the RSI above 30, but the exchange rate may test the 2023 low (1.0448) should the bearish price series persist.
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD continues to register fresh yearly lows after pushing below the monthly opening range at the start of the week, with a breach below the 2023 low (1.0448) opening up 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension).
- Next area of interest comes in around 1.0200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) but failure to clear the 2023 low (1.0448) may curb the recent series of lower highs and lows in EUR/USD.
- Need a move back above the 1.0610 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.0640 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) region for EUR/USD to snap the bearish price series, with a breach above 1.0770 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the 1.0860 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.0880 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area back on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Break Below November Opening Range
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD on Cusp of Testing 2022 High
GBP/USD Outlook Hinges on Break of Monthly Opening Range
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.
StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.
The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.
This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.
Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.
StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.
Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets
We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
© FOREX.COM 2025