Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound Tempts Breakout Ahead of NFP

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• Euro recovery eyes first major test of September downtrend- risk for price inflection
• EUR/USD bear-market recovery in focus into November- NFP, US election, Fed rate decision on tap
• Resistance 1.0871/79 (key), 1.0934/47, 1.10- Support 1.0835, 1.08, 1.0761

Euro is attempting to snap a four-week losing streak with EUR/USD up more than 1% off the monthly low. A rebound off trend support is now testing the initial downtrend resistance and we are on the lookout for a reaction here into the November open with Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. are the update targets and invalidation levels that matter on the Euro short-term technical charts into the monthly cross.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was responding to downtrend support and that, “from a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to this week’s high / the median-line IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.0732 needed to fuel the next major leg.” Euro has rallied more than 1% off those lows with price testing confluent resistance today at last week’s high / the median-line - risk for price inflection here into the close of the week.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows a breach of the weekly opening-range taking EUR/USD back into resistance at 1.0871/79- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the September range break, the 200-day moving average, and the June high-day close (HDC). A breach / daily close above this pivot zone would suggest a more significant low was registered last week and threaten a larger bear-market recovery. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the September decline / March high-close at 1.0934/47 with medium-term bearish invalidation steady at the 1.10-handle.

Look for initial support near the 61.8% retracement of the April rally at 1.0835 with the monthly low converging on the lower parallels near 1.0761. Key support rests at 1.0732/41- a region defined by the 78.6% retracement and the 61.8% retracement of the broader October 2023 advance. A break / close below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption / invalidate the 2023 uptrend. Subsequent support eyed at the June low-day close (LDC) at 1.0681 and 1.0612/19 in the event of a break.

Bottom line: The Euro recovery is now testing the first major resistance hurdle and a major pivot zone- looking for reaction here into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses would need to be limited to the weekly open (~1.08) IF price is heading for a breakout with a close above 1.0879 needed to fuel the next move.

Keep in mind we get the release of Non-Farm Payrolls into the November open tomorrow with US elections and the Fed interest rate decision on tap next week. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest Euro Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex