CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Vulnerable

Article By: ,  Sr. Technical Strategist

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Aussie snaps back to major pivot zone- testing former support as resistance
  • AUD/USD broader threat remains lower while below yearly moving average- support in view
  • Resistance 6511/27, 6631/32 (key), 6751- Support 6414/33, ~6380s (key), 6335

The Australian Dollar is taking a reprieve this week after plunging nearly 3.6% off the monthly highs with AUD/USD rallying more than 0.80% ahead of the New York close on Friday. The recovery takes Aussie back into a major pivo-zone, and the focus is on this week’s close with the broader outlook still weighted to the downside while below the 52-week moving average. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into the close of the month.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

 

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that the AUD/USD rebound was approaching resistance and that, “From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 6677- losses should limited to the November open at 6582…” Aussie registered an intraday high at 6688 that week before reversing sharply lower with a break below support / the November opening-range lows last week, now being tested as resistance.

The pivot zone in focus is 6511/27- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 October advance and the July close low. Initial weekly support rests with the 78.6% retracement / April close low at 6414/33 with the 2022 trendline seen just lower near 6380s- a break / close below this threshold would threaten a breakout of a multi-year consolidation pattern. Subsequent support objectives eyed at the 2023 low-week close (LWC) at 6335, the 88.6% retracement at 6283 and the 2022 LWC / 2008 low-close at 6201/10.

 A breach / close above this pivot zone exposes the 52-week moving average / 38.2% retracement pf the September decline at 6631/32- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close above needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 61.8% retracement at 6751 and the yearly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2023 decline at 6810/19 (key).

Bottom line: AUD/USD has rebounded off multi-month lows with the recovery now testing resistance at a major pivot zone- watch the weekly close here. From a trading standpoint, any rallies would need to be limited to 6632 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6414 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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