CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an account
✖

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

Article By: ,  Sr. Strategist
Today 8:48 PM

Australian Dollar Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD is very near a fresh four-year-low, rivaling levels not seen since the pandemic was getting priced-in during early-2020.
  • Sellers shied away from the two-year-low on the final day of 2024 trade but that bounce was short-lived, with bears defending the .6300 level. The bigger question now is how much motivation sellers might have upon prints of fresh lows.
  • AUD/JPY is grasping on to a Fibonacci support level and there’s now resistance potential at prior support of 100.00.

It’s been tough sledding for AUD/USD since the Q4 open and the pair is now nearing some extreme levels on a longer-term basis. Going back to 2008, there’s only been limited testing below the .6500 level and even less below the .6000 handle.

The 2008 low of .6007 was tested through in March of 2020 when the pandemic was getting priced in, and then the big figure helped to set support a month later in April of that year: But outside of that there hasn’t been much for price action below the big figure in Aussie.

On a shorter-term basis, the current two-year-low at .6170 almost came into the equation in late-2024 trade but buyers held the low above that price by a mere nine pips, leading into a bounce in early-2025 trade.

But sellers are making another push after resistance showed at .6300 and, at this point, those longer-term extremes are nearly in the equation.

 

AUD/USD Monthly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/USD on Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Bearish Exhaustion

 

From the weekly chart below we can see a bit of indecision around the New Year open, as last week’s doji led to an initial bounce until the .6300 level came into play. The reversal from that wiped out Monday’s gains but at this point, there’s more trepidation showing as bears haven’t shown willingness to test a fresh low.

Last week’s low of .6179 is just nine pips above the October 2022 low of .6170; and those are big levels on the AUD/USD chart. This also complicates strategy, but if there is a poke to a fresh low followed by another show of trepidation from bears, the door could open for bounce scenarios in the pair. Initial scope would be limited, however, to prior support of .6199, until or unless bulls were able to show a stronger move that could exhibit some element of control.

 

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/USD on Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Alternative Scenarios

 

This would require a few additional pieces falling into place – but if we do see a hold of today’s low, that could possibly constitute a higher-low for the pair above last week’s swing-low of .6179. That would then need a higher-high above the Monday swing of .6300 to provide a higher-high to go along with a higher-low; but if that scenario plays, we can then start to entertain the possibility of a larger bounce in the pair. That would highlight pullback potential that could, possibly, turn into more of a reversal theme. The next resistance level that I’m tracking above the .6300 handle is the August swing-low of .6349.

 

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/USD on Tradingview

 

AUD/JPY

 

Given continued Yen-weakness against the U.S. Dollar, AUD/JPY isn’t in the spot near long-term extremes. But, the pair has shown shorter-term bearish price action within the context of digestion in a longer-term move. Resistance held around 102.00 in Q4 which led to a push down to a lower-low, and so far the bounce from that has remained within the context of lower-highs.

There’s resistance potential around the 100.00 level, which is confluent with the 50% mark of the sell-off from the second-half of last year.

 

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/JPY on Tradingview

 

AUD/JPY Shorter-Term

 

On a shorter-term basis, there’s a confluent spot of support that the pair has been working with for a few weeks now, plotted around the 97.50 level. There’s two Fibonacci levels of note in tight proximity there and while sellers had an open door to run downside moves following the late-November and early-December sell-off, they failed to do so, instead setting up higher-lows in December trade.

Shorter-term, there’s a rising wedge, often approached with aim of bearish reversals. If that formation is nullified with a topside break, it’s the 100.00 level that would be the next big test.

 

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/JPY on Tradingview

 

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

 

Australian Dollar Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD is very near a fresh four-year-low, rivaling levels not seen since the pandemic was getting priced-in during early-2020.
  • Sellers shied away from the two-year-low on the final day of 2024 trade but that bounce was short-lived, with bears defending the .6300 level. The bigger question now is how much motivation sellers might have upon prints of fresh lows.
  • AUD/JPY is grasping on to a Fibonacci support level and there’s now resistance potential at prior support of 100.00.

AUDUSD AD

 

It’s been tough sledding for AUD/USD since the Q4 open and the pair is now nearing some extreme levels on a longer-term basis. Going back to 2008, there’s only been limited testing below the .6500 level and even less below the .6000 handle.

The 2008 low of .6007 was tested through in March of 2020 when the pandemic was getting priced in, and then the big figure helped to set support a month later in April of that year: But outside of that there hasn’t been much for price action below the big figure in Aussie.

On a shorter-term basis, the current two-year-low at .6170 almost came into the equation in late-2024 trade but buyers held the low above that price by a mere nine pips, leading into a bounce in early-2025 trade.

But sellers are making another push after resistance showed at .6300 and, at this point, those longer-term extremes are nearly in the equation.

 

AUDUSD AD

 

AUD/USD Monthly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/USD on Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Bearish Exhaustion

 

From the weekly chart below we can see a bit of indecision around the New Year open, as last week’s doji led to an initial bounce until the .6300 level came into play. The reversal from that wiped out Monday’s gains but at this point, there’s more trepidation showing as bears haven’t shown willingness to test a fresh low.

Last week’s low of .6179 is just nine pips above the October 2022 low of .6170; and those are big levels on the AUD/USD chart. This also complicates strategy, but if there is a poke to a fresh low followed by another show of trepidation from bears, the door could open for bounce scenarios in the pair. Initial scope would be limited, however, to prior support of .6199, until or unless bulls were able to show a stronger move that could exhibit some element of control.

 

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/USD on Tradingview

 

AUD/USD Alternative Scenarios

 

This would require a few additional pieces falling into place – but if we do see a hold of today’s low, that could possibly constitute a higher-low for the pair above last week’s swing-low of .6179. That would then need a higher-high above the Monday swing of .6300 to provide a higher-high to go along with a higher-low; but if that scenario plays, we can then start to entertain the possibility of a larger bounce in the pair. That would highlight pullback potential that could, possibly, turn into more of a reversal theme. The next resistance level that I’m tracking above the .6300 handle is the August swing-low of .6349.

 

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/USD on Tradingview

 

AUD/JPY

 

Given continued Yen-weakness against the U.S. Dollar, AUD/JPY isn’t in the spot near long-term extremes. But, the pair has shown shorter-term bearish price action within the context of digestion in a longer-term move. Resistance held around 102.00 in Q4 which led to a push down to a lower-low, and so far the bounce from that has remained within the context of lower-highs.

There’s resistance potential around the 100.00 level, which is confluent with the 50% mark of the sell-off from the second-half of last year.

 

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/JPY on Tradingview

 

AUD/JPY Shorter-Term

 

On a shorter-term basis, there’s a confluent spot of support that the pair has been working with for a few weeks now, plotted around the 97.50 level. There’s two Fibonacci levels of note in tight proximity there and while sellers had an open door to run downside moves following the late-November and early-December sell-off, they failed to do so, instead setting up higher-lows in December trade.

Shorter-term, there’s a rising wedge, often approached with aim of bearish reversals. If that formation is nullified with a topside break, it’s the 100.00 level that would be the next big test.

 

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, AUD/JPY on Tradingview

 

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025