Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Coils into Support

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD 7.3% plunge off yearly high halts at support near yearly lows
Australian Dollar stuck in multi-week, contractionary range- breakout imminent
Resistance 6497-6514, 6582/91, 6622/28 (key)– Support 6433 (key), 6401, 6362

The Australian Dollar plunged more than 7.3% off the yearly highs with the decline rebounding off support last week near the yearly lows. AUD/USD has been straddling the 2024 low-day close for the past few weeks with price contracting into December opening-range. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that, “From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch toward 6500…” We specifically highlighted, “subsequent support objectives at the April LDC at 6433 and the 2022 trendline / April low near 6362.” AUD/USD briefly registered an intraday low at 6434 last week before rebounding with price contracting into the median-line of a proposed descending pitchfork extending off the September high. The focus into the start of the month is on a potential breakout here with the multi-month downtrend vulnerable while above these lows.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD carving the weekly opening-range just below the 2024 LDC / monthly open 6497-6514. A breach / close above this threshold would threaten a larger bear market correction towards 6582/91 and the September low / 38.2% retracement of the late-September decline / 200-day moving average at 6622/28- both areas of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Ultimately a close above the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680 would be needed to put the bulls back in control.

A break / close below 6433 would threaten downtrend resumption towards subsequent support objectives at the 2024 / April close low at 6401 and the April low at 6362. Note that losses below this threshold would constitute a breakout of the objective yearly opening-range lows and threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the next major technical consideration near 6283/96- a region defined by the 88.6% retracement of the 2022 advance and the 2023 low-close.

Bottom line: A two-month decline off the yearly high takes Aussie towards support near the 2024 lows. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the broader short-bias vulnerable while above 6433. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 200-day moving average IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break of the range lows needed to mark downtrend resumption.

Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the December opening-range with US non-farm payrolls on tap in Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

StoneX Europe Limited is registered with the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). BaFin registration ID: 10160255

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

The statistical data and the awards received refer to the Global FOREX.com brand.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

Additionally, StoneX Europe Ltd is allowed to provide Investment and Ancillary Services to the following non-EU jurisdiction: Switzerland.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

Tied Agent Information: KQ Markets Europe Ltd with Company No. HE427857.
Address: Athalassas 62, Mezzanine, Strovolos, Nicosia Cyprus.
Services Provided: Reception and Transmission of Orders.
Commencement Date: 06/12/2022
Website: KQ Markets - CFD Trading | KQ Markets

We may pay inducements, such as commissions or fees, to affiliates or third-party introducers for referring clients to us. This is in line with regulatory guidelines and fully disclosed where applicable.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.