WTI Crude Bursts to a 6 Month High Bulls May Target 7000 Next
Earlier this month, we noted that April has historically been the most bullish month for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, with the commodity gaining an average of nearly 5% in the month over the last 15 years (and a stellar 9% on average over the last 5 years).
That seasonal trend is playing out in spades this year, with oil tacking on another 2.5%+ so far today to hit its highest level since Halloween:
...and there she goes. #WTI breaks to a 5-month high. ^MS
— FOREX.com (@FOREXcom) April 22, 2019
The US is reported to be ceasing waivers it countries that import Iranian #crude.
Positioning among large #speculators also appears supportive to its trend. https://t.co/c95YavUjux pic.twitter.com/V82mqX45vc
The proximate catalyst for today’s rally in oil prices is the news that the US will end waivers to countries importing oil from Iran next week. Assuming these countries, which include China, India, and Japan among others, cease imports from Iran, it could remove roughly 1 million barrels per day off the global supply.
From a technical perspective, WTI has broken out of a bullish flag pattern and has definitively cleared the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its Q4 collapse. Back in late October, WTI dropped from the 70.00 level to the lower 60.00s in a little over a week, leaving little in the way of previous support and resistance in this zone. Given this area of price inefficiency, oil could rally back to test the 78.6% retracement near the psychologically-significant 70.00 handle in relatively short order.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.
FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.
GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2025