Weekly equities forecast: FedEx, Next & Kingfisher

FedEx Q1 earnings preview

FedEx, the delivery giant, will report first-quarter earnings on Thursday, September 19th. The stock is up 11% this year, underperforming the border market.

Expectations are for earnings of $4.87, up from $4.55 in the same period of 2024. Meanwhile, Q1 revenue is expected to have risen 1% from last year to $22 billion.

The results come as FedEx is on the path to a significant transformation. Its organizational structure is undergoing changes to become a more efficient and flexible company. The firm is implementing optimization programmes and pricing strategies to achieve substantial cost savings. A few weeks ago, management raised the dividend by 10% as cost reduction efforts have started bearing fruit.

In June, FedEx shares jumped 15% after the company beat both top and line estimates for the fiscal fourth-quarter results. However, a similar performance may not be achieved this time in a more competitive pricing environment and softer parcel market volumes, as seen in the UPS Q2 earning report.

How to trade FedEx earnings?

FedEx trades above its rising trendline and its 50 and 200 SMAs in a bullish chart. The price has eased back from the record high of 312, but the uptrend is firmly intact. Buyers will look to retake 300 to extend gains to 312 and a fresh record high.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 272, the August low. A break below here exposes 260, the rising trendline support, and the 50 SMA. A break below 243 creates a lower low.

Next earnings preview

The UK retailer is set to report first-half results on Thursday, September 19th. Shares in the retailer hit an all-time high, up 28% this year.

The results will be closely watched after the company updated the market in August, posting better-than-expected growth in full-price sales.

That trading update or preview into H1 figures showing full price sales up 4.4% for the first six months of the company's fiscal year was ahead of growth of 2.5%. The better-than-expected sales figures in the first half, plus lower-than-expected costs, prompted an upgrade to full-year pre-tax profit forecasts to £980 million.

The market will be looking for an update on its deal with Reese after lifting its stake to majority shareholding last year and the integration of Fat Face and Joules.

These figures come as UK consumer confidence was at a three-year high in August, boosted by sentiment around personal finances and optimism of further rate cuts from the Bank of England throughout the year. 

The BoE interest rate decision is due on Thursday. While the Bank of England is not expected to cut rates this week, it could guide towards a rate cut in November.

How to trade Next results?

Next trades within a rising channel on the weekly chart, and is at a record high. Buyers will look to extend gains towards 11,000 as the next logical level.

However, the RSI is in overbought territory, so caution should prevail. Support can be seen at 9320, the May high. A break below here negates the near-term uptrend. A break below 8650, the July low, creates a lower low.

Kingfisher results preview

The B&Q and Screwfix owner is set to report its results for fiscal 2025 on Tuesday, September 17th. The home improvement retailer is expected to post an adjusted pretax profit of £286 million, compared to £336 million reported a year ago.

Total sales are forecast to fall to £6.81 billion, down from £6.88 billion, and sales on a like-for-like basis are expected to fall 2%.

The results come as the share price is up 21% over the past 12 months, reflecting an improvement in consumer confidence. Unemployment remains low, and wage growth continues to outpace inflation. However, shares remain around 25% lower than their peak during the pandemic.

The company said that it remains cautious about the market outlook. Q1 results didn’t offer a standout performance but were modestly better than last autumn. DIY peers have pointed to rising trading momentum. While the environment is improving for consumers and consumer sentiment is showing signs of brightening, Kingfisher remains cautious over discretionary spending, particularly for home improvement and gardening projects.

However, with inflation now down at more reasonable levels and central banks starting to cut interest rates, the environment should be more favorable looking ahead as long as the labour markets hold up and recession is avoided.

How to trade Kingfisher results?

Kingfisher has recovered from a 2024 low of 204 and trades within an ascending channel. The price has risen above the 200 SMA, which, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers hopeful of further gains towards 313, the 2022 high, and beyond there, 327, the record peak.

On the downside, support can be seen at 264, the lower band of the rising channel. Below here, the 200 SMA at 246 is a crucial level to watch.