USDCAD probes resistance ahead of US retail sales
Today will see the release of several macroeconomic pointers from the US, starting from 13:30 GMT. Among them, we will have the latest monthly retail sales and industrial production data. The US dollar will therefore be in focus.
Here is what’s coming up and what is expected (important ones circled):
Among the dollar crosses, the USD/CAD will be the one to watch. Recently, the Canadian dollar has been trending lower after the Bank of Canada, at the end of last month, raised expectations it would cut interest rates as it expressed greater concern about global trade uncertainty.
Two weeks later and the Canadian dollar is still struggling, even if it has come off its weekly lows a little bit, causing the USD/CAD to ease. However, given the BOC’s U-turn on interest rates, the USD/CAD could rise further over time as the CAD weakens.
Source: eSignal and FOREX.com
Whether or not the USD/CAD will push higher today will depend to a great extent on the outcome of today’s US macro pointers:
- If the data proves to be weak, then there is a danger rates may drop to test support around 1.3200.
- If the data proves to be really poor, then this 1.3200 support level could break down, resulting in a deeper retracement.
- However, if the data is line or ideally better than expected, then expect a run towards and possibly beyond this week’s high at 1.3270.
Technically, the path of least resistance looks to be to the upside, in what still is an overall range-bound market. The recent low near 1.3050 was higher than the one made in the summer. Price has therefore created its first higher low, but still needs a higher high to confirm the bullish reversal. The most recent high comes in at 1.3345. A decisive break above this level in the coming trading days could be what the would-be bullish traders are looking for.
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.
FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.
GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2025