US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Pulls Back Ahead of 2024 High
US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF
USD/CHF starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows after failing to test the 2024 high (0.9225), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the December low (0.8736) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory.
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Pulls Back Ahead of 2024 High
The move below 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in USD/CHF like the price action from last year, but the pullback in the exchange rate may turn out to be temporary should it continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.8858).
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
In turn, USD/CHF may reflect a bullish trend as long as it holds above the moving average, and speculation surrounding US monetary policy may influence the exchange rate as Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook acknowledges that ‘the labor market has been somewhat more resilient, while inflation has been stickier than I assumed’ while speaking at the University of Michigan.
As a result, Governor Cook goes onto say that the central bank ‘can afford to proceed more cautiously with further cuts,’ and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may further adjust its forward guidance in 2025 as the US economy shows little signs of a looming recession.
With that said, the opening range for January is in focus for USD/CHF as it starts to carve a bearish price series, but the exchange rate may stage further attempts to test the 2024 high (0.9225) should it continue to hold above the 50-Day SMA (0.8858).
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView
- USD/CHF appears to be reversing ahead of the 2024 high (0.9225) as it continues to pullback from the monthly high (0.9138), with a close below the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar.
- Next area of interest comes in around 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension), but USD/CHF may stage further attempts to test the 2024 high (0.9225) if it struggles to close below the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region.
- A breach above the 2024 high (0.9225) may lead to a test of the October 2023 high (0.9245), with the next area of interest coming in around the 2023 high (0.9440).
Additional Market Outlooks
EUR/USD Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Out of Oversold Territory
USD/CAD Rebound Pushes RSI Back Towards Overbought Zone
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Pushes Below May Low to Eye 2024 Low
AUD/USD Vulnerable to Change in RBA Policy
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.
FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.
GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2025