Dollar edges up on key payroll data, report as expected
Key labor market data out this morning offered no surprises, and maybe that was the surprise! Those markets open today were up modestly, notably dollar cross rates. Dollar/Sterling and Euro/Dollar were 1.24 and 1.09 after the report. For context, it’s worth noting that non-farm payroll data beat prior forecasts for eleven-straight months so perhaps coming in as expected is the surprise.
For more detailed market commentary go to StoneX Market Intelligence, https://my.stonex.com/.
Non-farm payrolls came in pretty much as expected this morning, with non-farm payrolls at 236,000 in line with the forecast 240,000, still cooler than the revised 326,000 jobs added last month. The unemployment rate a shade lower at 3.5% versus 3.6% last month. Average hourly earnings, a key factor in inflation, slowed to 4.2% year-on-year compared to 4.6% last month.
Last week saw negative employment data which set the scene for a softer jobs market. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in February and showed a clear upward trend, after the Labor Department revised data to better reflect seasonal factors. Job openings dropped sharply in February after strength, bringing data closer to the historical average. Employer surveys showed manufacturing and service sectors contracting rather than expanding.
Where does this leave interest rate forecasts compared to the current 4.5%-4.75% range? The FOMC's median projection in its recent quarterly “dot plot” expected the policy benchmark to peak at 5.4% at the end of 2023 – a quarter point higher than what economists predict. This report is unlikely to change anyone’ opinion, least of all the Federal reserve policy makers. (We can all get back to our anticipated Easter break plans.)
Analysis by Paul Walton, Financial Writer
Read more on our outlook for the economy and markets on StoneX Market Intelligence at https://my.stonex.com/
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.
FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.
GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2024