Oil Price Forecast: Oil Bears Reassert Control– Crude Support in View

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

Oil prices turn from 2024 yearly open resistance- plunges nearly 3.8% on the week.
WTI approaching key support near yearly lows- risk for price inflection ahead.
Resistance 70.44/59, 71.93-72.46, 73.88/96 (key)- Support 67.48, 65.62-66.31 (key), 63.63

Crude oil prices turned from confluent resistance this week with WTI threatening resumption of the July downtrend. The focus is on a breakout of a multi-month range with the bears looking to make another test of key support near the yearly lows. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min WTI technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Oil Price Forecast, we noted that WTI was approaching the lower bounds of a multi-week range and “A good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- look for a reaction on a stretch towards key support near the 66-handle.” WTI registered an intraday low the following week at 66.58 before reversing sharply higher with an outside-week reversal keeping the focus on a breakout of the weekly range (66.58-71.42).

Note that critical support rests just lower with the 2020-high / 2023 close low / 2024 low-day close (LDC) at 65.62-66.31- a break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to validate a breakout of the 2023 consolidation pattern. The next major weekly support zone rests with the 2020 high-week close (HWC) / 100% extension of the 2023 decline at 59.16-60.31. Key weekly resistance remains unchanged with the objective yearly open at 71.33.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the oil daily chart shows WTI continuing to trade within the confines of the descending pitchfork extending off the July high. Note that price turned from the 75% parallel yesterday with the bears now testing initial support at the 61.8% retracement / November low-day close (LDC) at 68.46-69.05- watch today’s close.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI attempting to break support in New York trade. Subsequent support rests around the 88.6% retracement at 67.15 with a break / close below 65.62 needed to validate a larger break towards the 2023 low at 63.63 and the 100% extension at 60.31.

Initial resistance 71.33 backed by the August LDC / June low at 71.92-72.45. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the October HDC / 61.8% retracement of the October decline at 73.87/91.

Bottom line: The oil remains vulnerable to further losses here after turning from downtrend resistance with a break below the median-line needed fuel the next test of range support. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of last-week’s range- rallies should be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading for a break lower with a close below 65.62 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.