NFP Recap US jobs bounce back sharply in April dollar unimpressed

Official US jobs data for April came out substantially better than expected on Friday, indicating that the previous month’s dismal data (which became even more dismal through a revision on Friday’s release), may just have been an outlier in an otherwise positively trending US employment environment.

Total non-farm payroll employment for April was reported to have increased by 211,000 jobs, significantly greater than the ~190,000 jobs that were expected. April’s unemployment rate also improved by dropping down to 4.4%, the lowest in ten years, from the previous month’s 4.5% and against a prior forecast of 4.6%. Average hourly earnings came in as expected at +0.3%. Interestingly, however, while some had been expecting March’s disappointing 98,000 headline number to be revised upwards, the revision was actually to the downside. The previously reported 98,000 March jobs added was revised significantly down to an even more disappointing 79,000.

This positive showing for April should lend further to the Federal Reserve’s generally optimistic outlook for the US economy as touched upon in Wednesday’s FOMC statement, and bodes well for a likely and expected rate hike by the Fed in June. Of course, there is one more jobs report, for May, that will be released in early June prior to the next FOMC meeting and decision. That report will take on even greater significance with respect to the continuing strength in employment from the Fed’s perspective. Overall, Friday’s significant jobs beat places the US economy, and rate hike prospects, on better footing after recent lackluster economic data, especially with respect to weak GDP growth in the first quarter and March’s low job gains.

Despite a clearly positive and better-than-expected outcome for April jobs, however, the US dollar was unimpressed. In fact, after spiking very briefly, the greenback fell almost immediately against most of its major currency counterparts after the release. After this initial drop, the dollar stabilized once again but remained under modest pressure. Going forward, however, Friday’s positive news should help provide some support for the currently-struggling US dollar, especially if the prospect of a June rate hike by the Fed becomes increasingly likely.

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.