Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Moment of Truth at Trend Support

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold snaps four-week rally – now testing November uptrend
XAU/USD carving August opening-range just above confluent support
Gold resistance 1965, 1988, 2009/17 – support 1919/29 (key), 1891, 1871

Gold prices are poised to snap a four-week winning streak with XAU/USD down more than 0.9% ahead of the close on Friday. The decline was halted at a key technical confluence this week and the focus now falls on a breakout of the August opening range. It’s the moment of truth for the bulls. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “responded to confluent support around 1900 and keeps the outlook weighted to the topside while above the November trendline (red).” Topside resistance was eyed at, “the 38.2% retracement of the May decline at 1965 backed closely by the 2022 high-week close at 1988.”

Gold prices registered an intraday high at 1987 the following week before reversing with the decline testing support this week at 1919/29- a region defined by the June low-week close and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June advance. Note that the November trendline converges on this range over the next few weeks and further highlights its technical significance.

Monthly open resistance now 1965 backed again by 1988. Ultimately, a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement of the May decline / record high-week close at 2009/17 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards the record high-close at 2035 and the swing highs at 2075/81.

A break below this key pivot zone would threaten another accelerated decline towards the Mary 2021 high-week close at 1891 and the 61.8% extensions of the yearly a decline at 1871 (note the 52-week moving average just lower at ~1853)- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold is testing a pivot zone here at multi-month uptrend support with the August opening-range taking shape just above- look to the breakout for guidance. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited by 1919 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 2017 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my latest Gold Short-term Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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